TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13042169
Played Aug 30Finished
Tomas Kos
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811911114811––
Erik Mares
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:21 and never touched — 61.8% is still 61.8%
Graded at full timeTomas Kos to win
61.8%
61.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Kos above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Tomas Kos at 61.8%
73 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kos 18–17 Erik Mares Erik Mares has won 17 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:21What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kos
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-17 in 35
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kos 1896 vs Mares 1802
Kos
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kos 60% vs Mares 20%
Kos
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kos 80% vs Mares 20%
Kos
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kos +1 · Mares -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kos) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKos 1.67 / Mares 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Kos)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13042169
Kos1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 18 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it70% 14 of 20
Mares2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 95 of 211
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 107
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKos6wins
AwayMares4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKos leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKos60%3 of 5
AwayMares40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kos5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S2Kos7Mares3n = 10Kos took 7 of 10
S3Kos6Mares4n = 10Kos took 6 of 10
S4Kos4Mares3n = 7Kos took 4 of 7
S5Kos1Mares2n = 3Mares took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosMaresK − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.136.9+2.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime86 / 176 vs 585 / 116648.9%50.2%86 / 176 vs 585 / 1166Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.239.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosKos 1.67/Mares 2.10
Miss
What we said
59%
Kos · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 06:30T. Kos—11711113E. Mares—411551
WAug 28 · 12:30T. Kos—1611113E. Mares—14580
WAug 20 · 15:00T. Kos—891211113E. Mares—111110992
WAug 20 · 13:28T. Kos—1114113E. Mares—91270
LAug 20 · 12:00T. Kos—7570E. Mares—1111113
LAug 15 · 17:29T. Kos—111389112E. Mares—9111111123
LAug 15 · 15:30T. Kos—311851E. Mares—11111113
WJul 19 · 11:00T. Kos—101111113E. Mares—126881
WJul 19 · 06:00T. Kos—81111143E. Mares—1177121
LJul 17 · 18:00T. Kos—11117392E. Mares—591111113
T. Kos10
WAug 30 · 12:59T. Kos1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.756980LAug 30 · 12:30Z. Bilek1.91911811113T. Kos1.8011611442WAug 30 · 10:30M. Kratochvil3.00911115142T. Kos1.36116611163LAug 30 · 09:29J. Zajicek1.361111143T. Kos3.0083120LAug 30 · 08:30J. Zajicek1.401111113T. Kos2.758570WAug 30 · 07:30T. Kos1.441111113M. Kratochvil2.638860WAug 30 · 06:30E. Mares2.00411551T. Kos1.7311711113WAug 28 · 13:30T. Kos2.2011101011113J. Cernik1.6091212992WAug 28 · 12:30E. Mares1.8314580T. Kos1.831611113WAug 28 · 11:30T. Kos1.5391111113M. Kratochvil2.38113461
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LAug 30 · 06:30E. Mares2.00411551T. Kos1.7311711113LAug 28 · 12:30E. Mares1.8314580T. Kos1.831611113
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