TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13029670
Played Aug 28Finished
Erik Mares
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1416511811––––
Tomas Kos
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:39 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeTomas Kos to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingErik Mares above · Tomas Kos below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 65 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Tomas Kos at 55.2%
65 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 17–16 Tomas Kos Tomas Kos has won 16 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:39What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kos
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-16 in 33
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1877 vs Kos 1902
Kos
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 40% vs Kos 60%
Kos
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 40% vs Kos 60%
Kos
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares -1 · Kos +3
Kos
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kos) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.83 / Kos 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kos)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13029670
Mares1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kos1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares6wins
AwayKos4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMares leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares57.1%4 of 7
AwayKos33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares7Kos3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S2Mares3Kos7n = 10Kos took 7 of 10
S3Mares5Kos5n = 10split evenly
S4Mares4Kos3n = 7Mares took 4 of 7
S5Mares3Kos1n = 4Mares took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresKosM − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.237.7+2.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresKosBasisWin rate · lifetime590 / 1171 vs 81 / 16950.4%47.9%590 / 1171 vs 81 / 169Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.936.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosMares 1.83/Kos 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kos · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 15:00E. Mares—111110992T. Kos—891211113
LAug 20 · 13:28E. Mares—91270T. Kos—1114113
WAug 20 · 12:00E. Mares—1111113T. Kos—7570
WAug 15 · 17:29E. Mares—9111111123T. Kos—111389112
WAug 15 · 15:30E. Mares—11111113T. Kos—311851
LJul 19 · 11:00E. Mares—126881T. Kos—101111113
LJul 19 · 06:00E. Mares—1177121T. Kos—81111143
WJul 17 · 18:00E. Mares—591111113T. Kos—11117392
WMay 24 · 11:00E. Mares—1111113T. Kos—7680
WMay 23 · 19:30E. Mares—1110812113T. Kos—712111032
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WSep 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8011813113J. Vales1.912111171
T. Kos10
WAug 30 · 12:59T. Kos1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.756980LAug 30 · 12:30Z. Bilek1.91911811113T. Kos1.8011611442LAug 30 · 11:30T. Kos1.67891181E. Mares2.1011114113WAug 30 · 10:30M. Kratochvil3.00911115142T. Kos1.36116611163LAug 30 · 09:29J. Zajicek1.361111143T. Kos3.0083120LAug 30 · 08:30J. Zajicek1.401111113T. Kos2.758570WAug 30 · 07:30T. Kos1.441111113M. Kratochvil2.638860WAug 30 · 06:30E. Mares2.00411551T. Kos1.7311711113WAug 28 · 13:30T. Kos2.2011101011113J. Cernik1.6091212992WAug 28 · 11:30T. Kos1.5391111113M. Kratochvil2.38113461
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