TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13041134
Played Aug 30Finished
Erik Mares
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411117511511––
Tomas Kos
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:49 and never touched — 61.8% is still 61.8%
Graded at full timeTomas Kos to win
61.8%
61.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingErik Mares above · Tomas Kos below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 65 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Tomas Kos at 61.8%
65 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 18–18 Tomas Kos Dead even across their 36 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:49What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kos
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-18 in 36
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1870 vs Kos 1896
Kos
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 20% vs Kos 100%
Kos
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 30% vs Kos 60%
Kos
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares -3 · Kos +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kos) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kos form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 2.00 / Kos 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Kos)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13041134
Mares2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 97 of 216
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 62
Kos1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 22 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it72% 18 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares4wins
AwayKos6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKos leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares50%3 of 6
AwayKos75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares6Kos4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S2Mares4Kos6n = 10Kos took 6 of 10
S3Mares3Kos7n = 10Kos took 7 of 10
S4Mares3Kos4n = 7Kos took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresKosM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.938.6−2.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresKosBasisWin rate · lifetime585 / 1165 vs 87 / 17950.2%48.6%585 / 1165 vs 87 / 179Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.936.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosMares 2.00/Kos 1.73
Hit
What we said
56.9%
Kos · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 11:30E. Mares—11114113T. Kos—891181
LAug 30 · 06:30E. Mares—411551T. Kos—11711113
LAug 28 · 12:30E. Mares—14580T. Kos—1611113
LAug 20 · 15:00E. Mares—111110992T. Kos—891211113
LAug 20 · 13:28E. Mares—91270T. Kos—1114113
WAug 20 · 12:00E. Mares—1111113T. Kos—7570
WAug 15 · 17:29E. Mares—9111111123T. Kos—111389112
WAug 15 · 15:30E. Mares—11111113T. Kos—311851
LJul 19 · 11:00E. Mares—126881T. Kos—101111113
LJul 19 · 06:00E. Mares—1177121T. Kos—81111143
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WSep 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8011813113J. Vales1.912111171
T. Kos10
WAug 30 · 12:59T. Kos1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.756980LAug 30 · 12:30Z. Bilek1.91911811113T. Kos1.8011611442LAug 30 · 11:30T. Kos1.67891181E. Mares2.1011114113WAug 30 · 10:30M. Kratochvil3.00911115142T. Kos1.36116611163LAug 30 · 09:29J. Zajicek1.361111143T. Kos3.0083120LAug 30 · 08:30J. Zajicek1.401111113T. Kos2.758570WAug 30 · 07:30T. Kos1.441111113M. Kratochvil2.638860WAug 28 · 13:30T. Kos2.2011101011113J. Cernik1.6091212992WAug 28 · 12:30E. Mares1.8314580T. Kos1.831611113WAug 28 · 11:30T. Kos1.5391111113M. Kratochvil2.38113461
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.