TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13036456
Played Aug 29Finished
Jan Cernik
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118116113––––
Michal Kratochvil
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:31 and never touched — 72.0% is still 72.0%
Graded at full timeJan Cernik to win
72.0%
72.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Cernik above · Michal Kratochvil below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 50 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Jan Cernik at 72.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Jan Cernik 9–6 Michal Kratochvil Michal Kratochvil has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:31What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Cernik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-6 in 15
Cernik
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernik 1995 vs Kratochvil 1786
Cernik
Correct
both rated, 209 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernik 40% vs Kratochvil 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernik 40% vs Kratochvil 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernik +1 · Kratochvil -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Cernik) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kratochvil form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 1.28 / Kratochvil 3.50
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Cernik)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13036456
Cernik1.28
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 84 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it96% 48 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it88% 63 of 72
Kratochvil3.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog46% won 101 of 219
Down 0–1, comes back32% 42 of 130
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernik7wins
AwayKratochvil3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernik100%4 of 4
AwayKratochvil50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik4Kratochvil6n = 10Kratochvil took 6 of 10
S2Cernik8Kratochvil2n = 10Cernik took 8 of 10
S3Cernik6Kratochvil4n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S4Cernik4Kratochvil0n = 4Cernik took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernikKratochvilC − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.129.6+5.5per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikKratochvilBasisWin rate · lifetime190 / 321 vs 275 / 56759.2%48.5%190 / 321 vs 275 / 567Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikCernik 1.28/Kratochvil 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.3%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 09:00J. Cernik—1111123M. Kratochvil—79100
WAug 29 · 07:00J. Cernik—1111113M. Kratochvil—8780
WAug 28 · 12:00J. Cernik—1111113M. Kratochvil—5670
LAug 28 · 08:00J. Cernik—8950M. Kratochvil—1111113
WAug 16 · 10:00J. Cernik—1111113M. Kratochvil—4880
WAug 16 · 09:28J. Cernik—91111113M. Kratochvil—119261
LAug 16 · 06:30J. Cernik—77100M. Kratochvil—1111123
WJul 19 · 06:30J. Cernik—811711113M. Kratochvil—11411282
LJun 7 · 01:30J. Cernik—51151182M. Kratochvil—119118113
WJun 6 · 19:30J. Cernik—91111113M. Kratochvil—114941
J. Cernik10
WAug 29 · 13:30J. Cernik2.33911911113L. Boruvka1.5411511792WAug 29 · 12:30J. Cernik2.7512117113L. Boruvka1.401041161WAug 29 · 10:00J. Zajicek1.401149111J. Cernik2.7561111133WAug 29 · 09:00J. Cernik1.401111123M. Kratochvil2.6579100LAug 29 · 08:00L. Boruvka1.4061111113J. Cernik2.75119941WAug 29 · 07:00M. Kratochvil3.008780J. Cernik1.361111113LAug 29 · 06:30J. Cernik2.75611111182J. Zajicek1.40118713113LAug 28 · 13:30T. Kos2.2011101011113J. Cernik1.6091212992WAug 28 · 12:00M. Kratochvil2.385670J. Cernik1.531111113WAug 28 · 11:00E. Mares2.10911481J. Cernik1.6711711113
M. Kratochvil10
WSep 3 · 21:30R. Urbaniec2.00771171M. Kratochvil1.7311119113WSep 3 · 20:00M. Wollny2.20661181M. Kratochvil1.6111118113WSep 3 · 19:00V. Burdik2.201179101M. Kratochvil1.6191111123LSep 3 · 18:30M. Kratochvil1.50914881R. Urbaniec2.50111211113LAug 30 · 12:59T. Kos1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.756980LAug 30 · 12:00E. Mares1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.754890LAug 30 · 11:00Z. Bilek1.83791111143M. Kratochvil1.83111146122LAug 29 · 09:00J. Cernik1.401111123M. Kratochvil2.6579100LAug 29 · 07:00M. Kratochvil3.008780J. Cernik1.361111113LAug 28 · 12:00M. Kratochvil2.385670J. Cernik1.531111113
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