TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13042992
Played Aug 30Finished
Erik Mares
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114118119––––
Michal Kratochvil
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:07 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingErik Mares above · Michal Kratochvil below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 54 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Erik Mares at 58.5%
54 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 22–10 Michal Kratochvil Michal Kratochvil has won 10 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:07What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Mares
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-10 in 32
Mares
Correct
gap of 12 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1817 vs Kratochvil 1722
Mares
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 40% vs Kratochvil 20%
Mares
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 30% vs Kratochvil 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +1 · Kratochvil -3
Kratochvil
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Mares) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kratochvil form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.40 / Kratochvil 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Mares)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13042992
Mares1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 134 of 230
Up 2–0, closes it86% 86 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it72% 108 of 150
Kratochvil2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 103 of 227
Down 0–1, comes back31% 42 of 135
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares6wins
AwayKratochvil4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMares leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares42.9%3 of 7
AwayKratochvil0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares7Kratochvil3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S2Mares6Kratochvil4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S3Mares7Kratochvil3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S4Mares3Kratochvil5n = 8Kratochvil took 5 of 8
S5Mares2Kratochvil3n = 5Kratochvil took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresKratochvilM − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.139.3+1.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresKratochvilBasisWin rate · lifetime586 / 1167 vs 274 / 57050.2%48.1%586 / 1167 vs 274 / 570Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresMares 1.40/Kratochvil 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.3%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 08:58E. Mares—125911113M. Kratochvil—101111782
LAug 30 · 08:00E. Mares—119111662M. Kratochvil—611718113
LAug 28 · 13:00E. Mares—11118892M. Kratochvil—451111113
WAug 28 · 10:00E. Mares—1215113M. Kratochvil—101360
WAug 27 · 10:30E. Mares—71111113M. Kratochvil—116871
WAug 16 · 07:30E. Mares—611111123M. Kratochvil—115711102
WAug 15 · 14:00E. Mares—41111113M. Kratochvil—119751
LAug 15 · 24:30E. Mares—11211652M. Kratochvil—811711113
WAug 13 · 14:30E. Mares—1111113M. Kratochvil—9940
LAug 12 · 11:00E. Mares—1291081M. Kratochvil—101112113
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WSep 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8011813113J. Vales1.912111171
M. Kratochvil10
WSep 3 · 21:30R. Urbaniec2.00771171M. Kratochvil1.7311119113WSep 3 · 20:00M. Wollny2.20661181M. Kratochvil1.6111118113WSep 3 · 19:00V. Burdik2.201179101M. Kratochvil1.6191111123LSep 3 · 18:30M. Kratochvil1.50914881R. Urbaniec2.50111211113LAug 30 · 12:59T. Kos1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.756980LAug 30 · 11:00Z. Bilek1.83791111143M. Kratochvil1.83111146122LAug 30 · 10:30M. Kratochvil3.00911115142T. Kos1.36116611163LAug 30 · 08:58M. Kratochvil3.00101111782E. Mares1.36125911113WAug 30 · 08:00M. Kratochvil3.00611718113E. Mares1.36119111662LAug 30 · 07:30T. Kos1.441111113M. Kratochvil2.638860
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