TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13029680
Played Aug 28Finished
Erik Mares
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911117411811––
Jan Cernik
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:40 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeJan Cernik to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingErik Mares above · Jan Cernik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 72 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Jan Cernik at 56.7%
72 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 21–22 Jan Cernik Erik Mares has won 21 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:40What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cernik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-22 in 43
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1886 vs Cernik 1972
Cernik
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 40% vs Cernik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 40% vs Cernik 60%
Cernik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +1 · Cernik -3
Cernik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Cernik) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 2.10 / Cernik 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Cernik)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13029680
Mares2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 95 of 210
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 61
Cernik1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 80 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it96% 46 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it87% 59 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares4wins
AwayCernik6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares42.9%3 of 7
AwayCernik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares7Cernik3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S2Mares6Cernik4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S3Mares4Cernik6n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S4Mares1Cernik7n = 8Cernik took 7 of 8
S5Mares2Cernik3n = 5Cernik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresCernikM − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.539.2+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime590 / 1170 vs 185 / 31350.4%59.1%590 / 1170 vs 185 / 313Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikMares 2.10/Cernik 1.67
Hit
What we said
58.6%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 18:00E. Mares—8990J. Cernik—1111113
LAug 16 · 08:00E. Mares—12116982J. Cernik—1041111113
LJul 24 · 11:30E. Mares—1310821J. Cernik—111211113
LJul 24 · 07:30E. Mares—1187111J. Cernik—61111133
LJul 19 · 13:04E. Mares—11117962J. Cernik—631111113
WJul 19 · 10:30E. Mares—51111133J. Cernik—1157111
LJul 19 · 08:00E. Mares—411119102J. Cernik—118711123
WJul 16 · 01:30E. Mares—111165113J. Cernik—58111152
WJul 15 · 17:00E. Mares—1111123J. Cernik—49100
WJul 15 · 15:00E. Mares—115118113J. Cernik—41161162
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WSep 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8011813113J. Vales1.912111171
J. Cernik10
WAug 29 · 13:30J. Cernik2.33911911113L. Boruvka1.5411511792WAug 29 · 12:30J. Cernik2.7512117113L. Boruvka1.401041161WAug 29 · 11:00J. Cernik1.281111113M. Kratochvil3.508630WAug 29 · 10:00J. Zajicek1.401149111J. Cernik2.7561111133WAug 29 · 09:00J. Cernik1.401111123M. Kratochvil2.6579100LAug 29 · 08:00L. Boruvka1.4061111113J. Cernik2.75119941WAug 29 · 07:00M. Kratochvil3.008780J. Cernik1.361111113LAug 29 · 06:30J. Cernik2.75611111182J. Zajicek1.40118713113LAug 28 · 13:30T. Kos2.2011101011113J. Cernik1.6091212992WAug 28 · 12:00M. Kratochvil2.385670J. Cernik1.531111113
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