TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13035780
Played Aug 29Finished
Michal Kratochvil
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811711811––––
Jan Cernik
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:00 and never touched — 72.0% is still 72.0%
Graded at full timeJan Cernik to win
72.0%
72.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Kratochvil above · Jan Cernik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 56 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Jan Cernik at 72.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kratochvil 6–10 Jan Cernik Michal Kratochvil has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:00What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Cernik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Cernik
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kratochvil 1682 vs Cernik 2083
Cernik
Correct
both rated, 401 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kratochvil 20% vs Cernik 40%
Cernik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kratochvil 40% vs Cernik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kratochvil -1 · Cernik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Cernik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKratochvil 3.00 / Cernik 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Cernik)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13035780
Kratochvil3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 104 of 235
Down 0–1, comes back30% 43 of 142
Down 0–2, comes back9% 7 of 75
Cernik1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 87 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it96% 51 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it88% 66 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKratochvil3wins
AwayCernik7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKratochvil60%3 of 5
AwayCernik100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kratochvil5Cernik5n = 10split evenly
S2Kratochvil2Cernik8n = 10Cernik took 8 of 10
S3Kratochvil4Cernik6n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S4Kratochvil0Cernik3n = 3Cernik took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricKratochvilCernikK − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match28.534.2−5.7per matchSweeps25−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKratochvilCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 570 vs 193 / 32447.9%59.6%273 / 570 vs 193 / 324Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikKratochvil 3.00/Cernik 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 11:00M. Kratochvil—8630J. Cernik—1111113
LAug 29 · 09:00M. Kratochvil—79100J. Cernik—1111123
LAug 29 · 07:00M. Kratochvil—8780J. Cernik—1111113
LAug 28 · 12:00M. Kratochvil—5670J. Cernik—1111113
WAug 28 · 08:00M. Kratochvil—1111113J. Cernik—8950
LAug 16 · 10:00M. Kratochvil—4880J. Cernik—1111113
LAug 16 · 09:28M. Kratochvil—119261J. Cernik—91111113
WAug 16 · 06:30M. Kratochvil—1111123J. Cernik—77100
LJul 19 · 06:30M. Kratochvil—11411282J. Cernik—811711113
WJun 7 · 01:30M. Kratochvil—119118113J. Cernik—51151182
M. Kratochvil10
WSep 3 · 21:30R. Urbaniec2.00771171M. Kratochvil1.7311119113WSep 3 · 20:00M. Wollny2.20661181M. Kratochvil1.6111118113WSep 3 · 19:00V. Burdik2.201179101M. Kratochvil1.6191111123LSep 3 · 18:30M. Kratochvil1.50914881R. Urbaniec2.50111211113LAug 30 · 12:59T. Kos1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.756980LAug 30 · 12:00E. Mares1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.754890LAug 30 · 11:00Z. Bilek1.83791111143M. Kratochvil1.83111146122LAug 30 · 10:30M. Kratochvil3.00911115142T. Kos1.36116611163LAug 30 · 08:58M. Kratochvil3.00101111782E. Mares1.36125911113WAug 30 · 08:00M. Kratochvil3.00611718113E. Mares1.36119111662
J. Cernik10
WAug 29 · 13:30J. Cernik2.33911911113L. Boruvka1.5411511792WAug 29 · 12:30J. Cernik2.7512117113L. Boruvka1.401041161WAug 29 · 11:00J. Cernik1.281111113M. Kratochvil3.508630WAug 29 · 10:00J. Zajicek1.401149111J. Cernik2.7561111133WAug 29 · 09:00J. Cernik1.401111123M. Kratochvil2.6579100LAug 29 · 08:00L. Boruvka1.4061111113J. Cernik2.75119941LAug 29 · 06:30J. Cernik2.75611111182J. Zajicek1.40118713113LAug 28 · 13:30T. Kos2.2011101011113J. Cernik1.6091212992WAug 28 · 12:00M. Kratochvil2.385670J. Cernik1.531111113WAug 28 · 11:00E. Mares2.10911481J. Cernik1.6711711113
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