TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12434262
Played Aug 15Finished
Erik Mares
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1179111614119––
Lukas Zeman
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Zeman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingErik Mares above · Lukas Zeman below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 88 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Lukas Zeman at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 24–35 Lukas Zeman Erik Mares has won 24 of their 59 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:43What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Zeman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-35 in 59
Zeman
Wrong
gap of 11 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1885 vs Zeman 1852
Mares
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 80% vs Zeman 60%
Mares
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 70% vs Zeman 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +4 · Zeman +1
Mares
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zeman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.83 / Zeman 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zeman)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12434262
Mares1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Zeman1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares5wins
AwayZeman5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares75%3 of 4
AwayZeman66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares4Zeman6n = 10Zeman took 6 of 10
S2Mares6Zeman4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S3Mares5Zeman5n = 10split evenly
S4Mares4Zeman4n = 8split evenly
S5Mares3Zeman3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresZemanM − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.840.3+2.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime572 / 1136 vs 255 / 51250.4%49.8%572 / 1136 vs 255 / 512Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZemanMares 1.83/Zeman 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Zeman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 14 · 23:00E. Mares—11118852L. Zeman—461111113
LAug 8 · 11:30E. Mares—1191161L. Zeman—13114113
WAug 8 · 06:00E. Mares—121110113L. Zeman—1081291
WJul 27 · 21:30E. Mares—11111111113L. Zeman—13134482
WJul 27 · 19:00E. Mares—761111113L. Zeman—11115492
LJul 3 · 22:30E. Mares—511611112L. Zeman—117119133
LJul 3 · 12:30E. Mares—57110L. Zeman—1111133
WJul 2 · 13:00E. Mares—1111113L. Zeman—4690
WJul 2 · 12:30E. Mares—1112811113L. Zeman—610111372
LJul 2 · 08:30E. Mares—812118112L. Zeman—1110311133
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WSep 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8011813113J. Vales1.912111171
L. Zeman10
LSep 2 · 03:00L. Zeman1.73891251J. Kycelt2.00111110113LSep 2 · 02:30E. Mares1.80111311113L. Zeman1.91715881WSep 2 · 01:00F. Wolf2.00118813102L. Zeman1.739111111123WSep 1 · 23:30L. Zeman1.7310111011123J. Kycelt2.00126125102LSep 1 · 22:00L. Zeman1.577118101M. Huk2.2511711123LAug 16 · 13:29J. Cernik1.369111011113L. Zeman3.0011912482LAug 16 · 12:00J. Cernik1.3611911113L. Zeman3.00811481WAug 16 · 11:00M. Kratochvil2.10561281L. Zeman1.67111110113WAug 16 · 10:30L. Zeman1.83911611113J. Kanera1.8311911942LAug 15 · 16:59L. Zeman1.5761180M. Kratochvil2.251113113
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