TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13042176
Played Aug 30Finished
Erik Mares
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911611114311––
Zdenek Bilek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:24 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingErik Mares above · Zdenek Bilek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 66 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Erik Mares at 55.7%
66 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 49–34 Zdenek Bilek Zdenek Bilek has won 34 of their 83 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:24What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Mares
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-34 in 83
Mares
Wrong
gap of 15 in 83, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1815 vs Bilek 1761
Mares
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 20% vs Bilek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 20% vs Bilek 10%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +1 · Bilek -4
Bilek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Mares)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bilek form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.73 / Bilek 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Mares)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13042176
Mares1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 134 of 230
Up 2–0, closes it86% 86 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it72% 108 of 150
Bilek2.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 37 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back23% 11 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares5wins
AwayBilek5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares57.1%4 of 7
AwayBilek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares7Bilek3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S2Mares6Bilek4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S3Mares5Bilek5n = 10split evenly
S4Mares5Bilek3n = 8Mares took 5 of 8
S5Mares2Bilek5n = 7Bilek took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresBilekM − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match45.643.4+2.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresBilekBasisWin rate · lifetime585 / 1165 vs 184 / 35350.2%52.1%585 / 1165 vs 184 / 353Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresMares 1.73/Bilek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bilek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 14 · 22:00E. Mares—1211113Z. Bilek—10380
LAug 8 · 13:00E. Mares—551812102Z. Bilek—11111610123
WAug 8 · 10:00E. Mares—1111113Z. Bilek—9950
LJun 30 · 21:00E. Mares—111281052Z. Bilek—6101112113
LJun 30 · 19:30E. Mares—1111109102Z. Bilek—671211123
LJun 27 · 02:30E. Mares—91341372Z. Bilek—11111111113
WJun 17 · 20:30E. Mares—5111111113Z. Bilek—11135892
WJun 10 · 21:30E. Mares—111110113Z. Bilek—261261
WJun 10 · 18:00E. Mares—118149113Z. Bilek—911121172
LJun 7 · 01:00E. Mares—13971392Z. Bilek—11111111113
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WSep 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8011813113J. Vales1.912111171
Z. Bilek10
LAug 30 · 13:29Z. Bilek2.1011911482E. Mares1.65311711113WAug 30 · 12:30Z. Bilek1.91911811113T. Kos1.8011611442WAug 30 · 11:00Z. Bilek1.83791111143M. Kratochvil1.83111146122LAug 15 · 02:30L. Zeman2.3813511113Z. Bilek1.531111941LAug 15 · 01:00T. Postelt2.631111710113Z. Bilek1.4486111292LAug 14 · 23:30Z. Bilek1.801171091M. Kratochvil1.9181112113LAug 14 · 22:00Z. Bilek2.2010380E. Mares1.611211113WAug 8 · 13:00E. Mares1.73551812102Z. Bilek2.0011111610123LAug 8 · 12:30Z. Bilek1.50891181L. Zeman2.5011118113LAug 8 · 11:00Z. Bilek1.67671161L. Jindrak2.1011119113
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