TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12421521
Played Aug 14Finished
Zdenek Bilek
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012311811––––
Erik Mares
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:01 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZdenek Bilek above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Erik Mares at 62.5%
55 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Bilek 34–49 Erik Mares Zdenek Bilek has won 34 of their 83 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:01What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Mares
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-49 in 83
Mares
Correct
gap of 15 in 83, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bilek 1791 vs Mares 1871
Mares
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bilek 20% vs Mares 80%
Mares
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bilek 20% vs Mares 70%
Mares
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bilek +1 · Mares -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Mares) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBilek 2.20 / Mares 1.61
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Mares)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12421521
Bilek2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog47% won 40 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back25% 12 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Mares1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 116 of 196
Up 2–0, closes it88% 74 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it74% 95 of 129
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBilek5wins
AwayMares5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBilek66.7%2 of 3
AwayMares57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bilek3Mares7n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S2Bilek4Mares6n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S3Bilek5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S4Bilek3Mares5n = 8Mares took 5 of 8
S5Bilek5Mares2n = 7Bilek took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBilekMaresB − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.445.6−2.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBilekMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime193 / 366 vs 568 / 113052.7%50.3%193 / 366 vs 568 / 1130Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresBilek 2.20/Mares 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 14 · 22:00Z. Bilek—10380E. Mares—1211113
WAug 8 · 13:00Z. Bilek—11111610123E. Mares—551812102
LAug 8 · 10:00Z. Bilek—9950E. Mares—1111113
WJun 30 · 21:00Z. Bilek—6101112113E. Mares—111281052
WJun 30 · 19:30Z. Bilek—671211123E. Mares—1111109102
WJun 27 · 02:30Z. Bilek—11111111113E. Mares—91341372
LJun 17 · 20:30Z. Bilek—11135892E. Mares—5111111113
LJun 10 · 21:30Z. Bilek—261261E. Mares—111110113
LJun 10 · 18:00Z. Bilek—911121172E. Mares—118149113
WJun 7 · 01:00Z. Bilek—11111111113E. Mares—13971392
Z. Bilek10
LAug 30 · 13:29Z. Bilek2.1011911482E. Mares1.65311711113WAug 30 · 12:30Z. Bilek1.91911811113T. Kos1.8011611442WAug 30 · 11:00Z. Bilek1.83791111143M. Kratochvil1.83111146122WAug 30 · 10:00E. Mares1.73961131Z. Bilek2.0011114113LAug 15 · 02:30L. Zeman2.3813511113Z. Bilek1.531111941LAug 15 · 01:00T. Postelt2.631111710113Z. Bilek1.4486111292LAug 14 · 23:30Z. Bilek1.801171091M. Kratochvil1.9181112113WAug 8 · 13:00E. Mares1.73551812102Z. Bilek2.0011111610123LAug 8 · 12:30Z. Bilek1.50891181L. Zeman2.5011118113LAug 8 · 11:00Z. Bilek1.67671161L. Jindrak2.1011119113
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113WAug 30 · 13:29Z. Bilek2.1011911482E. Mares1.65311711113LAug 30 · 10:00E. Mares1.73961131Z. Bilek2.0011114113LAug 8 · 13:00E. Mares1.73551812102Z. Bilek2.0011111610123
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