TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12425938
Played Aug 15Finished
Lukas Zeman
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311511119114––
Zdenek Bilek
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched — 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeZdenek Bilek to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Zeman above · Zdenek Bilek below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 75 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Zdenek Bilek at 65.5%
75 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Zeman 8–13 Zdenek Bilek Lukas Zeman has won 8 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:53What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Bilek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-13 in 21
Bilek
Wrong
gap of 5 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zeman 1872 vs Bilek 1761
Zeman
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zeman 80% vs Bilek 20%
Zeman
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zeman 70% vs Bilek 10%
Zeman
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zeman +3 · Bilek -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Bilek) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bilek form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZeman 2.38 / Bilek 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Bilek)+1.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12425938
Zeman2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 42 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back26% 12 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Bilek1.53
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 39 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it84% 27 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZeman4wins
AwayBilek6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBilek leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZeman66.7%4 of 6
AwayBilek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zeman6Bilek4n = 10Zeman took 6 of 10
S2Zeman5Bilek5n = 10split evenly
S3Zeman3Bilek7n = 10Bilek took 7 of 10
S4Zeman3Bilek4n = 7Bilek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZemanBilekZ − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.937.6−2.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZemanBilekBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 509 vs 193 / 36949.9%52.3%254 / 509 vs 193 / 369Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BilekZeman 2.38/Bilek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.8%
Bilek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zeman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 15 · 02:30L. Zeman—13511113Z. Bilek—1111941
WAug 8 · 12:30L. Zeman—11118113Z. Bilek—891181
WJun 30 · 18:00L. Zeman—1111123Z. Bilek—89100
LApr 26 · 02:30L. Zeman—712861Z. Bilek—111011113
LApr 16 · 21:30L. Zeman—9111151Z. Bilek—11713113
LApr 16 · 19:30L. Zeman—11411782Z. Bilek—811911113
LMar 29 · 21:00L. Zeman—1112891Z. Bilek—81411113
LMar 29 · 18:30L. Zeman—10440Z. Bilek—1211113
WMar 8 · 18:00L. Zeman—11116113Z. Bilek—681171
LMar 8 · 16:30L. Zeman—9990Z. Bilek—1111113
L. Zeman10
LSep 2 · 03:00L. Zeman1.73891251J. Kycelt2.00111110113LSep 2 · 02:30E. Mares1.80111311113L. Zeman1.91715881WSep 2 · 01:00F. Wolf2.00118813102L. Zeman1.739111111123WSep 1 · 23:30L. Zeman1.7310111011123J. Kycelt2.00126125102LSep 1 · 22:00L. Zeman1.577118101M. Huk2.2511711123LAug 16 · 13:29J. Cernik1.369111011113L. Zeman3.0011912482LAug 16 · 12:00J. Cernik1.3611911113L. Zeman3.00811481WAug 16 · 11:00M. Kratochvil2.10561281L. Zeman1.67111110113WAug 16 · 10:30L. Zeman1.83911611113J. Kanera1.8311911942LAug 15 · 16:59L. Zeman1.5761180M. Kratochvil2.251113113
Z. Bilek10
LAug 30 · 13:29Z. Bilek2.1011911482E. Mares1.65311711113WAug 30 · 12:30Z. Bilek1.91911811113T. Kos1.8011611442WAug 30 · 11:00Z. Bilek1.83791111143M. Kratochvil1.83111146122WAug 30 · 10:00E. Mares1.73961131Z. Bilek2.0011114113LAug 15 · 01:00T. Postelt2.631111710113Z. Bilek1.4486111292LAug 14 · 23:30Z. Bilek1.801171091M. Kratochvil1.9181112113LAug 14 · 22:00Z. Bilek2.2010380E. Mares1.611211113WAug 8 · 13:00E. Mares1.73551812102Z. Bilek2.0011111610123LAug 8 · 12:30Z. Bilek1.50891181L. Zeman2.5011118113LAug 8 · 11:00Z. Bilek1.67671161L. Jindrak2.1011119113
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