TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12423610
Played Aug 15Finished
Tomas Postelt
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181167111012119
Zdenek Bilek
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Postelt to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Postelt above · Zdenek Bilek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Tomas Postelt at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Postelt 17–31 Zdenek Bilek Tomas Postelt has won 17 of their 48 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:11What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Bilek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-31 in 48
Bilek
Wrong
gap of 14 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Postelt 1824 vs Bilek 1770
Postelt
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Postelt 40% vs Bilek 20%
Postelt
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Postelt 50% vs Bilek 20%
Postelt
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Postelt -2 · Bilek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Bilek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bilek form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPostelt 2.63 / Bilek 1.44
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Bilek)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #12423610
Postelt2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 74 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back30% 28 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 48
Bilek1.44
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 39 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it84% 27 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePostelt5wins
AwayBilek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePostelt75%3 of 4
AwayBilek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Postelt4Bilek6n = 10Bilek took 6 of 10
S2Postelt4Bilek6n = 10Bilek took 6 of 10
S3Postelt6Bilek4n = 10Postelt took 6 of 10
S4Postelt2Bilek7n = 9Bilek took 7 of 9
S5Postelt4Bilek1n = 5Postelt took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPosteltBilekP − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.342.6−1.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPosteltBilekBasisWin rate · lifetime328 / 708 vs 193 / 36846.3%52.5%328 / 708 vs 193 / 368Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BilekPostelt 2.63/Bilek 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Bilek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Postelt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 15 · 01:00T. Postelt—1111710113Z. Bilek—86111292
LJun 26 · 23:00T. Postelt—91130Z. Bilek—1113113
LJun 10 · 20:30T. Postelt—811531Z. Bilek—11611113
WJun 6 · 22:00T. Postelt—1271111113Z. Bilek—14111852
WMay 7 · 22:00T. Postelt—1110114113Z. Bilek—91251172
LDec 10 · 15:30T. Postelt—7811101Z. Bilek—11117123
LOct 30 · 18:30T. Postelt—761181Z. Bilek—11113113
LOct 30 · 16:30T. Postelt—11118672Z. Bilek—981111113
WSep 9 · 16:30T. Postelt—121216113Z. Bilek—14101481
WAug 13 · 01:00T. Postelt—138118123Z. Bilek—1111711102
T. Postelt10
LSep 6 · 09:30J. Vales1.43111114113T. Postelt2.608131271WSep 6 · 08:30T. Postelt1.6111129113O. Kolisnyk2.205101181LSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt2.7511117872J. Vales1.40981111113WSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123WSep 2 · 20:58T. Postelt1.731111153J. Ruzicka2.0079130WSep 2 · 20:00J. Kycelt1.916840T. Postelt1.801111113LSep 2 · 19:00M. Huk2.1061112113T. Postelt1.671171091LSep 2 · 18:30T. Postelt1.671211131192J. Ruzicka2.10149157113WSep 1 · 17:30J. Kycelt1.85116781T. Postelt1.8581111113WSep 1 · 16:00F. Wolf1.80511751T. Postelt1.9111411113
Z. Bilek10
LAug 30 · 13:29Z. Bilek2.1011911482E. Mares1.65311711113WAug 30 · 12:30Z. Bilek1.91911811113T. Kos1.8011611442WAug 30 · 11:00Z. Bilek1.83791111143M. Kratochvil1.83111146122WAug 30 · 10:00E. Mares1.73961131Z. Bilek2.0011114113LAug 15 · 02:30L. Zeman2.3813511113Z. Bilek1.531111941LAug 14 · 23:30Z. Bilek1.801171091M. Kratochvil1.9181112113LAug 14 · 22:00Z. Bilek2.2010380E. Mares1.611211113WAug 8 · 13:00E. Mares1.73551812102Z. Bilek2.0011111610123LAug 8 · 12:30Z. Bilek1.50891181L. Zeman2.5011118113LAug 8 · 11:00Z. Bilek1.67671161L. Jindrak2.1011119113
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