TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065498
Played Sep 3Finished
Martin Skotnica
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811114911118116
Radim Urbaniec
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:58 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Skotnica to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Skotnica above · Radim Urbaniec below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 90 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Martin Skotnica at 66.5%
90 points played in total.
H2H Martin Skotnica 5–2 Radim Urbaniec Radim Urbaniec has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:58What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Skotnica
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Skotnica
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotnica 1821 vs Urbaniec 1668
Skotnica
Correct
both rated, 153 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotnica 60% vs Urbaniec 40%
Skotnica
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotnica 60% vs Urbaniec 40%
Skotnica
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotnica +1 · Urbaniec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Skotnica) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skotnica form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotnica 1.40 / Urbaniec 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Skotnica)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065498
Skotnica1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 40 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it70% 32 of 46
Urbaniec2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 191 of 469
Down 0–1, comes back21% 55 of 265
Down 0–2, comes back4% 6 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSkotnica5wins
AwayUrbaniec2wins
1 of 7 to a deciderSkotnica leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotnica100%4 of 4
AwayUrbaniec66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotnica4Urbaniec3n = 7Skotnica took 4 of 7
S2Skotnica5Urbaniec2n = 7Skotnica took 5 of 7
S3Skotnica5Urbaniec2n = 7Skotnica took 5 of 7
S4Skotnica1Urbaniec2n = 3Urbaniec took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home343%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricSkotnicaUrbaniecS − UBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match34.929.1+5.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicaUrbaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 211 vs 605 / 118854%50.9%114 / 211 vs 605 / 1188Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicaSkotnica 1.40/Urbaniec 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Skotnica · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skotnica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJul 30 · 15:30M. Skotnica—311691R. Urbaniec—11811113
WJul 22 · 17:30M. Skotnica—1111113R. Urbaniec—8760
WJul 22 · 14:30M. Skotnica—116118113R. Urbaniec—71171152
WJul 21 · 14:00M. Skotnica—1111113R. Urbaniec—6440
LJun 30 · 13:00M. Skotnica—101170R. Urbaniec—1213113
WJun 30 · 10:00M. Skotnica—1211113R. Urbaniec—10370
WJun 29 · 16:30M. Skotnica—71111113R. Urbaniec—117581
M. Skotnica10
LSep 4 · 17:31M. Skotnica1.67912118102L. Prikasky2.101110711123WSep 4 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.671111143M. Navedla2.1067120WSep 4 · 15:30L. Prikasky2.1041030M. Skotnica1.671112113WSep 4 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.83111182113D. Tomica1.8363111142WSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191WSep 3 · 16:00M. Grundel2.1012871192M. Skotnica1.671011119113WSep 3 · 15:00L. Velebil1.838101191M. Skotnica1.8311129113WAug 13 · 17:30M. Skotnica1.631111113M. Grundel2.059790LAug 13 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.83511114102D. Tomica1.83117911123WAug 13 · 15:30L. Prikasky2.00711871M. Skotnica1.7311411113
R. Urbaniec10
LSep 3 · 21:30R. Urbaniec2.00771171M. Kratochvil1.7311119113WSep 3 · 20:30V. Burdik1.91711251R. Urbaniec1.8011811113WSep 3 · 19:30R. Urbaniec2.6311911113M. Wollny1.44911781WSep 3 · 18:30M. Kratochvil1.50914881R. Urbaniec2.50111211113LSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113WSep 3 · 16:30L. Velebil1.33111158102R. Urbaniec3.25891111123LSep 3 · 15:30R. Urbaniec3.253660M. Grundel1.331111113WSep 2 · 21:00R. Urbaniec1.611111113R. Hudeczek2.205660WSep 2 · 20:00R. Urbaniec1.44711118113M. Chalupa2.6311971192LSep 2 · 19:30M. Holub2.25116911113R. Urbaniec1.5781111412
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