TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12414522
Played Aug 13Finished
Martin Skotnica
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111171194111012
Daniel Tomica
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Skotnica to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Skotnica above · Daniel Tomica below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 91 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Martin Skotnica at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Martin Skotnica 6–8 Daniel Tomica Martin Skotnica has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:56What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Tomica
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-8 in 14
Tomica
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotnica 1821 vs Tomica 1685
Skotnica
Wrong
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotnica 60% vs Tomica 20%
Skotnica
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotnica 50% vs Tomica 30%
Skotnica
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotnica +2 · Tomica -4
Tomica
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Skotnica) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tomica form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotnica 1.83 / Tomica 1.83
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Skotnica)+7.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12414522
Skotnica1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Tomica1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkotnica5wins
AwayTomica5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotnica80%4 of 5
AwayTomica80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotnica5Tomica5n = 10split evenly
S2Skotnica7Tomica3n = 10Skotnica took 7 of 10
S3Skotnica6Tomica4n = 10Skotnica took 6 of 10
S4Skotnica3Tomica5n = 8Tomica took 5 of 8
S5Skotnica3Tomica4n = 7Tomica took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkotnicaTomicaS − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.841.1+1.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicaTomicaBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 211 vs 90 / 18854%47.9%114 / 211 vs 90 / 188Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicaSkotnica 1.83/Tomica 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Skotnica · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tomica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 16:00M. Skotnica—511114102D. Tomica—117911123
WFeb 26 · 18:01M. Skotnica—411811113D. Tomica—11411592
WFeb 26 · 15:00M. Skotnica—1311113D. Tomica—11720
LFeb 24 · 17:00M. Skotnica—11641162D. Tomica—811113113
LFeb 19 · 18:30M. Skotnica—811119102D. Tomica—116811123
WFeb 19 · 15:00M. Skotnica—1111810113D. Tomica—58111252
LJan 8 · 16:00M. Skotnica—8911101D. Tomica—11118123
LDec 18 · 18:30M. Skotnica—66111172D. Tomica—111175113
WDec 18 · 16:00M. Skotnica—1211123D. Tomica—107100
WDec 10 · 18:30M. Skotnica—111788113D. Tomica—815111192
M. Skotnica10
LSep 4 · 17:31M. Skotnica1.67912118102L. Prikasky2.101110711123WSep 4 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.671111143M. Navedla2.1067120WSep 4 · 15:30L. Prikasky2.1041030M. Skotnica1.671112113WSep 4 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.83111182113D. Tomica1.8363111142WSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191WSep 3 · 16:00M. Grundel2.1012871192M. Skotnica1.671011119113WSep 3 · 15:00L. Velebil1.838101191M. Skotnica1.8311129113WSep 3 · 14:30M. Skotnica1.40811911113R. Urbaniec2.7511411862WAug 13 · 17:30M. Skotnica1.631111113M. Grundel2.059790WAug 13 · 15:30L. Prikasky2.00711871M. Skotnica1.7311411113
D. Tomica10
WSep 4 · 17:03D. Tomica1.8513118113M. Navedla1.851131151LSep 4 · 16:30D. Tomica2.75117861L. Prikasky1.4091111113WSep 4 · 15:00D. Tomica1.7311811113M. Navedla2.00711841LSep 4 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.83111182113D. Tomica1.8363111142WAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113WAug 27 · 16:30D. Tomica2.2561111113L. Velebil1.57115931LAug 27 · 15:00D. Tomica2.257450M. Grundel1.571111113LAug 27 · 14:00L. Prikasky1.4491111113D. Tomica2.63118821WAug 22 · 12:58D. Tomica1.8319117113M. Vavrecka1.831751191WAug 22 · 12:00D. Tomica2.2011811173M. Vavrecka1.613119151
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