TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065452
Played Sep 3Finished
Matej Grundel
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210811711119911
Martin Skotnica
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:48 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMartin Skotnica to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Grundel above · Martin Skotnica below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 99 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Martin Skotnica at 56.2%
99 points played in total.
H2H Matej Grundel 11–19 Martin Skotnica Matej Grundel has won 11 of their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:48What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Skotnica
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-19 in 30
Skotnica
Correct
gap of 8 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grundel 1857 vs Skotnica 1848
Grundel
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grundel 80% vs Skotnica 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grundel 80% vs Skotnica 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grundel +3 · Skotnica +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Skotnica)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skotnica form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrundel 2.10 / Skotnica 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Skotnica)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065452
Grundel2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 31 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back29% 9 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Skotnica1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 40 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it70% 32 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrundel5wins
AwaySkotnica5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrundel66.7%4 of 6
AwaySkotnica75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grundel6Skotnica4n = 10Grundel took 6 of 10
S2Grundel5Skotnica5n = 10split evenly
S3Grundel4Skotnica6n = 10Skotnica took 6 of 10
S4Grundel4Skotnica3n = 7Grundel took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrundelSkotnicaG − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.536.6+0.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrundelSkotnicaBasisWin rate · lifetime162 / 307 vs 117 / 21452.8%54.7%162 / 307 vs 117 / 214Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicaGrundel 2.10/Skotnica 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Skotnica · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Skotnica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 16:00M. Grundel—12871192M. Skotnica—1011119113
LAug 13 · 17:30M. Grundel—9790M. Skotnica—1111113
LAug 13 · 14:00M. Grundel—7111121M. Skotnica—11713113
WAug 5 · 15:00M. Grundel—12612113M. Skotnica—10111091
WJul 30 · 14:00M. Grundel—11511113M. Skotnica—811971
WJul 8 · 17:30M. Grundel—1111113M. Skotnica—7660
WJul 8 · 16:30M. Grundel—1111911113M. Skotnica—13211882
LJun 29 · 17:30M. Grundel—119991M. Skotnica—61111113
LJun 29 · 14:30M. Grundel—611891M. Skotnica—11811113
WJun 24 · 15:00M. Grundel—1113113M. Skotnica—41180
M. Grundel10
LSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191WSep 3 · 15:30R. Urbaniec3.253660M. Grundel1.331111113WSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WAug 27 · 17:28M. Grundel1.831111109113L. Prikasky1.8382121192LAug 27 · 16:00L. Prikasky1.83119811113M. Grundel1.8361111882WAug 27 · 15:00D. Tomica2.257450M. Grundel1.571111113WAug 27 · 14:30M. Grundel2.001111113L. Velebil1.737750WAug 26 · 17:03M. Grundel1.771011812113L. Prikasky1.95127111072WAug 26 · 16:59M. Grundel1.911011812113P. Libor1.80127111072WAug 26 · 16:30M. Grundel1.80113111113M. Navedla1.9161161192
M. Skotnica10
LSep 4 · 17:31M. Skotnica1.67912118102L. Prikasky2.101110711123WSep 4 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.671111143M. Navedla2.1067120WSep 4 · 15:30L. Prikasky2.1041030M. Skotnica1.671112113WSep 4 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.83111182113D. Tomica1.8363111142WSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191WSep 3 · 15:00L. Velebil1.838101191M. Skotnica1.8311129113WSep 3 · 14:30M. Skotnica1.40811911113R. Urbaniec2.7511411862WAug 13 · 17:30M. Skotnica1.631111113M. Grundel2.059790LAug 13 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.83511114102D. Tomica1.83117911123WAug 13 · 15:30L. Prikasky2.00711871M. Skotnica1.7311411113
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