TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13020925
Played Aug 27Finished
Matej Grundel
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117115––––
Lukas Velebil
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:08 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMatej Grundel to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Grundel above · Lukas Velebil below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 52 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Matej Grundel at 55.8%
52 points played in total.
H2H Matej Grundel 1–3 Lukas Velebil Matej Grundel has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:08What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Velebil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Velebil
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grundel 1818 vs Velebil 1695
Grundel
Correct
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grundel 60% vs Velebil 40%
Grundel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grundel 60% vs Velebil 40%
Grundel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grundel +3 · Velebil -1
Grundel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Velebil) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velebil form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrundel 2.00 / Velebil 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Velebil)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13020925
Grundel2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 31 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back29% 9 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Velebil1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 22 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeGrundel1wins
AwayVelebil3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderVelebil leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrundel33.3%1 of 3
AwayVelebiln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grundel3Velebil1n = 4Grundel took 3 of 4
S2Grundel1Velebil3n = 4Velebil took 3 of 4
S3Grundel2Velebil2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricGrundelVelebilG − VBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match40.038.8+1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrundelVelebilBasisWin rate · lifetime157 / 300 vs 41 / 7552.3%54.7%157 / 300 vs 41 / 75Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VelebilGrundel 2.00/Velebil 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Velebil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Grundel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 18 · 17:30M. Grundel—1115113L. Velebil—61390
LAug 18 · 16:00M. Grundel—118811102L. Velebil—511116123
LMar 21 · 17:00M. Grundel—12911982L. Velebil—1011411113
LFeb 4 · 16:30M. Grundel—69110L. Velebil—1111133
M. Grundel10
LSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191LSep 3 · 16:00M. Grundel2.1012871192M. Skotnica1.671011119113WSep 3 · 15:30R. Urbaniec3.253660M. Grundel1.331111113WSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WAug 27 · 17:28M. Grundel1.831111109113L. Prikasky1.8382121192LAug 27 · 16:00L. Prikasky1.83119811113M. Grundel1.8361111882WAug 27 · 15:00D. Tomica2.257450M. Grundel1.571111113WAug 26 · 17:03M. Grundel1.771011812113L. Prikasky1.95127111072WAug 26 · 16:59M. Grundel1.911011812113P. Libor1.80127111072WAug 26 · 16:30M. Grundel1.80113111113M. Navedla1.9161161192
L. Velebil10
WSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113LSep 3 · 16:30L. Velebil1.33111158102R. Urbaniec3.25891111123LSep 3 · 15:00L. Velebil1.838101191M. Skotnica1.8311129113LSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WSep 1 · 17:29L. Velebil1.7311119113F. Nadymacek2.00671191WSep 1 · 16:00L. Kern2.2039100L. Velebil1.611111123WSep 1 · 15:00R. Urbaniec3.7541141192L. Velebil1.25118117113WSep 1 · 14:30L. Velebil1.7311911113F. Nadymacek2.00911881LAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113LAug 27 · 16:30D. Tomica2.2561111113L. Velebil1.57115931
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