TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13051955
Played Sep 1Finished
Lukas Kern
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
3119111012––––
Lukas Velebil
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:36 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Kern to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Kern above · Lukas Velebil below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 56 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Lukas Kern at 64.1%
56 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:36What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Velebil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Kern 1671 vs Velebil 1715
Velebil
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kern 20% vs Velebil 60%
Velebil
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kern 40% vs Velebil 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kern -3 · Velebil +2
Kern
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Velebil) · live re-read · sealed at 36% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kern form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKern 2.20 / Velebil 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Velebil)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13051955
Kern2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 41 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back22% 12 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Velebil1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 22 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it78% 14 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricKernVelebilBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 240 vs 44 / 8153.3%54.3%128 / 240 vs 44 / 81Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VelebilKern 2.20/Velebil 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Velebil · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Velebil won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
L. Kern10
WSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113WSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113LSep 4 · 18:00L. Kern1.7311790R. Hudeczek2.001311113LSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113WSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 4 · 15:30R. Hudeczek2.0012911113L. Kern1.731011731WSep 4 · 14:00L. Kern1.33711118113Z. Pagac3.2511981192WSep 1 · 20:58R. Urbaniec1.4482100L. Kern2.631111123LSep 1 · 20:30V. Burdik1.5311411113L. Kern2.38911571
L. Velebil10
WSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113LSep 3 · 16:30L. Velebil1.33111158102R. Urbaniec3.25891111123LSep 3 · 15:00L. Velebil1.838101191M. Skotnica1.8311129113LSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WSep 1 · 17:29L. Velebil1.7311119113F. Nadymacek2.00671191WSep 1 · 15:00R. Urbaniec3.7541141192L. Velebil1.25118117113WSep 1 · 14:30L. Velebil1.7311911113F. Nadymacek2.00911881LAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113LAug 27 · 16:30D. Tomica2.2561111113L. Velebil1.57115931WAug 27 · 15:30L. Velebil1.911111113L. Prikasky1.804890
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