TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13052766
Played Sep 1Finished
Radim Urbaniec
Home
3.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411118411117911
Lukas Velebil
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:05 and never touched — 75.0% is still 75.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Velebil to win
75.0%
75.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Urbaniec above · Lukas Velebil below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 87 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Velebil at 75.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Radim Urbaniec 0–3 Lukas Velebil Radim Urbaniec has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:05What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Velebil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Velebil
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urbaniec 1684 vs Velebil 1741
Velebil
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urbaniec 40% vs Velebil 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urbaniec 40% vs Velebil 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urbaniec +2 · Velebil +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Velebil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velebil form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrbaniec 3.75 / Velebil 1.25
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Velebil)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13052766
Urbaniec3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog41% won 191 of 469
Down 0–1, comes back21% 55 of 263
Down 0–2, comes back4% 6 of 144
Velebil1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 22 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it78% 14 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeUrbaniec0wins
AwayVelebil3wins
Velebil leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urbaniec1Velebil2n = 3Velebil took 2 of 3
S2Urbaniec0Velebil3n = 3Velebil took 3 of 3
S3Urbaniec0Velebil3n = 3Velebil took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricUrbaniecVelebilU − VBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match22.036.0−14.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbaniecVelebilBasisWin rate · lifetime602 / 1180 vs 45 / 8251%54.9%602 / 1180 vs 45 / 82Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VelebilUrbaniec 3.75/Velebil 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75%
Velebil · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Velebil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LMar 25 · 22:00R. Urbaniec—113741L. Velebil—91111113
LMar 25 · 20:00R. Urbaniec—4870L. Velebil—1111113
LMar 18 · 20:00R. Urbaniec—7780L. Velebil—1111113
R. Urbaniec10
LSep 3 · 21:30R. Urbaniec2.00771171M. Kratochvil1.7311119113WSep 3 · 20:30V. Burdik1.91711251R. Urbaniec1.8011811113WSep 3 · 19:30R. Urbaniec2.6311911113M. Wollny1.44911781WSep 3 · 18:30M. Kratochvil1.50914881R. Urbaniec2.50111211113LSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113WSep 3 · 16:30L. Velebil1.33111158102R. Urbaniec3.25891111123LSep 3 · 15:30R. Urbaniec3.253660M. Grundel1.331111113LSep 3 · 14:30M. Skotnica1.40811911113R. Urbaniec2.7511411862WSep 2 · 21:00R. Urbaniec1.611111113R. Hudeczek2.205660WSep 2 · 20:00R. Urbaniec1.44711118113M. Chalupa2.6311971192
L. Velebil10
WSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113LSep 3 · 16:30L. Velebil1.33111158102R. Urbaniec3.25891111123LSep 3 · 15:00L. Velebil1.838101191M. Skotnica1.8311129113LSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WSep 1 · 17:29L. Velebil1.7311119113F. Nadymacek2.00671191WSep 1 · 16:00L. Kern2.2039100L. Velebil1.611111123WSep 1 · 14:30L. Velebil1.7311911113F. Nadymacek2.00911881LAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113LAug 27 · 16:30D. Tomica2.2561111113L. Velebil1.57115931WAug 27 · 15:30L. Velebil1.911111113L. Prikasky1.804890
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