TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13018146
Played Aug 27Finished
Lukas Velebil
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114118119––––
Libor Prikasky
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:37 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeLibor Prikasky to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Velebil above · Libor Prikasky below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 54 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Libor Prikasky at 57.5%
54 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Velebil 1–0 Libor Prikasky Libor Prikasky has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:37What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Prikasky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Velebil 1689 vs Prikasky 1792
Prikasky
Wrong
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Velebil 40% vs Prikasky 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Velebil 40% vs Prikasky 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Velebil -2 · Prikasky +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Prikasky) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Prikasky form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVelebil 1.91 / Prikasky 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Prikasky)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13018146
Velebil1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 6 of 13
Down 0–1, comes back14% 1 of 7
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Prikasky1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 87 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it84% 63 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeVelebil1wins
AwayPrikasky0wins
Velebil leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricVelebilPrikaskyV − PBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.021.0+12.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVelebilPrikaskyBasisWin rate · lifetime42 / 79 vs 243 / 43353.2%56.1%42 / 79 vs 243 / 433Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PrikaskyVelebil 1.91/Prikasky 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Prikasky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Velebil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 27 · 15:30L. Velebil—1111113L. Prikasky—4890
L. Velebil10
WSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113LSep 3 · 16:30L. Velebil1.33111158102R. Urbaniec3.25891111123LSep 3 · 15:00L. Velebil1.838101191M. Skotnica1.8311129113LSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WSep 1 · 17:29L. Velebil1.7311119113F. Nadymacek2.00671191WSep 1 · 16:00L. Kern2.2039100L. Velebil1.611111123WSep 1 · 15:00R. Urbaniec3.7541141192L. Velebil1.25118117113WSep 1 · 14:30L. Velebil1.7311911113F. Nadymacek2.00911881LAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113LAug 27 · 16:30D. Tomica2.2561111113L. Velebil1.57115931
L. Prikasky10
LSep 5 · 09:00M. Navedla1.8311813113L. Prikasky1.836111171WSep 5 · 08:30P. Wawrosz1.73771161L. Prikasky2.0011115113LSep 5 · 07:30L. Prikasky1.8391180M. Vavrecka1.831113113LSep 5 · 06:30M. Navedla1.911111118113L. Prikasky1.8091351192WSep 4 · 17:31M. Skotnica1.67912118102L. Prikasky2.101110711123WSep 4 · 16:30D. Tomica2.75117861L. Prikasky1.4091111113LSep 4 · 15:30L. Prikasky2.1041030M. Skotnica1.671112113WSep 4 · 14:30M. Navedla1.73116124112L. Prikasky2.001111011133WSep 4 · 13:00L. Prikasky2.109111110113M. Navedla1.6711751252LSep 4 · 12:30L. Prikasky2.00771271P. Wawrosz1.73111110113
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