TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065469
Played Sep 3Finished
Lukas Velebil
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111012119911––
Martin Skotnica
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Skotnica to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Velebil above · Martin Skotnica below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 81 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Martin Skotnica at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Velebil 1–1 Martin Skotnica Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:58What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Skotnica
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Velebil 1743 vs Skotnica 1827
Skotnica
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Velebil 80% vs Skotnica 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Velebil 50% vs Skotnica 70%
Skotnica
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Velebil -1 · Skotnica +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skotnica)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skotnica form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVelebil 1.83 / Skotnica 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skotnica)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065469
Velebil1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Skotnica1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeVelebil1wins
AwaySkotnica1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricVelebilSkotnicaV − SBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match43.543.50.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVelebilSkotnicaBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 84 vs 115 / 21254.8%54.3%46 / 84 vs 115 / 212Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicaVelebil 1.83/Skotnica 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skotnica · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skotnica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WFeb 23 · 15:00L. Velebil—71212113M. Skotnica—11101081
LFeb 4 · 17:30L. Velebil—11119772M. Skotnica—961111113
L. Velebil10
WSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113LSep 3 · 16:30L. Velebil1.33111158102R. Urbaniec3.25891111123LSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WSep 1 · 17:29L. Velebil1.7311119113F. Nadymacek2.00671191WSep 1 · 16:00L. Kern2.2039100L. Velebil1.611111123WSep 1 · 15:00R. Urbaniec3.7541141192L. Velebil1.25118117113WSep 1 · 14:30L. Velebil1.7311911113F. Nadymacek2.00911881LAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113LAug 27 · 16:30D. Tomica2.2561111113L. Velebil1.57115931WAug 27 · 15:30L. Velebil1.911111113L. Prikasky1.804890
M. Skotnica10
LSep 4 · 17:31M. Skotnica1.67912118102L. Prikasky2.101110711123WSep 4 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.671111143M. Navedla2.1067120WSep 4 · 15:30L. Prikasky2.1041030M. Skotnica1.671112113WSep 4 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.83111182113D. Tomica1.8363111142WSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191WSep 3 · 16:00M. Grundel2.1012871192M. Skotnica1.671011119113WSep 3 · 14:30M. Skotnica1.40811911113R. Urbaniec2.7511411862WAug 13 · 17:30M. Skotnica1.631111113M. Grundel2.059790LAug 13 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.83511114102D. Tomica1.83117911123WAug 13 · 15:30L. Prikasky2.00711871M. Skotnica1.7311411113
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