TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13013668
Played Aug 26Finished
Matej Grundel
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116311116111119
Matyas Navedla
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:36 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Grundel to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Grundel above · Matyas Navedla below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 1-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 80 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Matej Grundel at 55.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Matej Grundel 20–16 Matyas Navedla Matyas Navedla has won 16 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:36What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Grundel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-16 in 36
Grundel
Correct
gap of 4 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grundel 1785 vs Navedla 1798
Navedla
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grundel 40% vs Navedla 60%
Navedla
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grundel 50% vs Navedla 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grundel -2 · Navedla +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Navedla) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grundel form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrundel 1.80 / Navedla 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Navedla)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13013668
Grundel1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 66 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it89% 31 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it74% 46 of 62
Navedla1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 144 of 330
Down 0–1, comes back27% 44 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back13% 10 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrundel3wins
AwayNavedla7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderNavedla leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrundel33.3%2 of 6
AwayNavedla75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grundel6Navedla4n = 10Grundel took 6 of 10
S2Grundel4Navedla6n = 10Navedla took 6 of 10
S3Grundel4Navedla6n = 10Navedla took 6 of 10
S4Grundel3Navedla6n = 9Navedla took 6 of 9
S5Grundel2Navedla4n = 6Navedla took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrundelNavedlaG − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.043.5−3.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrundelNavedlaBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 297 vs 365 / 75151.9%48.6%154 / 297 vs 365 / 751Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NavedlaGrundel 1.80/Navedla 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Navedla · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Grundel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 11 · 14:30M. Grundel—11612111M. Navedla—31114133
WJul 11 · 12:00M. Grundel—11117113M. Navedla—561171
WJul 8 · 14:30M. Grundel—111186113M. Navedla—89111172
LJul 3 · 15:30M. Grundel—111162112M. Navedla—851111133
LJun 28 · 06:00M. Grundel—12511682M. Navedla—1011711113
LJun 24 · 17:30M. Grundel—114961M. Navedla—81111113
WJun 24 · 14:00M. Grundel—711111113M. Navedla—11117592
LJun 17 · 16:00M. Grundel—69131192M. Navedla—1111117113
LJun 1 · 14:00M. Grundel—8850M. Navedla—1111113
LMay 27 · 15:00M. Grundel—711111382M. Navedla—119715113
M. Grundel10
LSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191LSep 3 · 16:00M. Grundel2.1012871192M. Skotnica1.671011119113WSep 3 · 15:30R. Urbaniec3.253660M. Grundel1.331111113WSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WAug 27 · 17:28M. Grundel1.831111109113L. Prikasky1.8382121192LAug 27 · 16:00L. Prikasky1.83119811113M. Grundel1.8361111882WAug 27 · 15:00D. Tomica2.257450M. Grundel1.571111113WAug 27 · 14:30M. Grundel2.001111113L. Velebil1.737750WAug 26 · 17:03M. Grundel1.771011812113L. Prikasky1.95127111072WAug 26 · 16:59M. Grundel1.911011812113P. Libor1.80127111072
M. Navedla10
WSep 5 · 09:00M. Navedla1.8311813113L. Prikasky1.836111171LSep 5 · 08:00M. Vavrecka1.57135411163M. Navedla2.251111117142LSep 5 · 07:00P. Wawrosz1.73881111113M. Navedla2.0011117692WSep 5 · 06:30M. Navedla1.911111118113L. Prikasky1.8091351192LSep 4 · 17:03D. Tomica1.8513118113M. Navedla1.851131151LSep 4 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.671111143M. Navedla2.1067120LSep 4 · 15:00D. Tomica1.7311811113M. Navedla2.00711841LSep 4 · 14:30M. Navedla1.73116124112L. Prikasky2.001111011133LSep 4 · 13:00L. Prikasky2.109111110113M. Navedla1.6711751252LSep 4 · 12:00R. Revay1.9181111133M. Navedla1.801186111
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