TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087456
Played Sep 7Finished
Jakub Pilch
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11661111510121210
Matyas Navedla
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:05 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Pilch to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Pilch above · Matyas Navedla below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 94 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Jakub Pilch at 56.9%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Pilch 24–17 Matyas Navedla Matyas Navedla has won 17 of their 41 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:05What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pilch
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-17 in 41
Pilch
Correct
gap of 7 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pilch 1807 vs Navedla 1770
Pilch
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pilch 40% vs Navedla 60%
Navedla
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pilch 60% vs Navedla 40%
Pilch
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pilch +1 · Navedla +3
Navedla
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pilch) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pilch form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPilch 1.73 / Navedla 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pilch)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087456
Pilch1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 59 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it70% 41 of 59
Navedla2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 139 of 326
Down 0–1, comes back25% 42 of 166
Down 0–2, comes back13% 10 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePilch5wins
AwayNavedla5wins
8 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePilch66.7%4 of 6
AwayNavedla75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pilch6Navedla4n = 10Pilch took 6 of 10
S2Pilch2Navedla8n = 10Navedla took 8 of 10
S3Pilch6Navedla4n = 10Pilch took 6 of 10
S4Pilch4Navedla6n = 10Navedla took 6 of 10
S5Pilch5Navedla3n = 8Pilch took 5 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPilchNavedlaP − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.545.0−1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPilchNavedlaBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 426 vs 358 / 74950.7%47.8%216 / 426 vs 358 / 749Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PilchPilch 1.73/Navedla 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Pilch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pilch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 15 · 17:13J. Pilch—15712662M. Navedla—13111011113
WJul 15 · 14:30J. Pilch—119812113M. Navedla—511111072
LJul 15 · 11:30J. Pilch—671151M. Navedla—11115113
WJul 14 · 12:00J. Pilch—117117113M. Navedla—51151192
LJul 12 · 09:30J. Pilch—14591132M. Navedla—1211118113
WJul 12 · 07:00J. Pilch—671111113M. Navedla—11116532
WJul 11 · 17:30J. Pilch—111177113M. Navedla—78111182
LJul 11 · 16:30J. Pilch—531181M. Navedla—11115113
WJul 11 · 10:30J. Pilch—116511133M. Navedla—411119112
LJul 4 · 12:00J. Pilch—911111492M. Navedla—118716113
J. Pilch10
LSep 7 · 13:07J. Pilch1.72117271P. Wawrosz2.0041111113WSep 7 · 11:00J. Pilch1.8371113113P. Wawrosz1.831171161LSep 7 · 10:00T. Dousek1.611111113J. Pilch2.209980LAug 2 · 17:30M. Kratochvil2.2014411113J. Pilch1.611211621LAug 2 · 16:30M. Kratochvil2.00212411113J. Pilch1.73111011672WAug 2 · 15:30J. Pilch2.251111711113J. Plachta1.5775111362WAug 2 · 14:30M. Szwarc1.8511790J. Pilch1.851311113WAug 2 · 13:30J. Pilch1.911311113O. Paril1.8011590LAug 2 · 12:30M. Szwarc2.001111113J. Pilch1.738880WAug 2 · 11:30J. Pilch2.381111113O. Paril1.537640
M. Navedla10
WSep 7 · 13:30M. Navedla2.1071111113T. Dousek1.67116841WSep 7 · 11:30M. Navedla2.501111123T. Dousek1.5098100WSep 7 · 10:30P. Wawrosz1.738550M. Navedla2.001111113WSep 5 · 09:00M. Navedla1.8311813113L. Prikasky1.836111171LSep 5 · 08:00M. Vavrecka1.57135411163M. Navedla2.251111117142LSep 5 · 07:00P. Wawrosz1.73881111113M. Navedla2.0011117692WSep 5 · 06:30M. Navedla1.911111118113L. Prikasky1.8091351192LSep 4 · 17:03D. Tomica1.8513118113M. Navedla1.851131151LSep 4 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.671111143M. Navedla2.1067120LSep 4 · 15:00D. Tomica1.7311811113M. Navedla2.00711841
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