TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12345648
Played Aug 2Finished
Jakub Pilch
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116114––––
Ondrej Paril
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:33 and never touched — 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timeOndrej Paril to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Pilch above · Ondrej Paril below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 50 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Ondrej Paril at 55.6%
50 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Pilch 5–9 Ondrej Paril Jakub Pilch has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:33What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Paril
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Paril
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pilch 1883 vs Paril 1806
Pilch
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pilch 60% vs Paril 80%
Paril
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pilch 50% vs Paril 70%
Paril
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pilch +3 · Paril +2
Pilch
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Paril) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Paril form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPilch 2.38 / Paril 1.53
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Paril)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12345648
Pilch2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 35 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back33% 14 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Paril1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite54% won 163 of 300
Up 2–0, closes it92% 80 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it77% 131 of 171
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePilch3wins
AwayParil7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderParil leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePilch40%2 of 5
AwayParil80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pilch5Paril5n = 10split evenly
S2Pilch3Paril7n = 10Paril took 7 of 10
S3Pilch6Paril4n = 10Pilch took 6 of 10
S4Pilch2Paril5n = 7Paril took 5 of 7
S5Pilch1Paril2n = 3Paril took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPilchParilPilch − ParilBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.337.9−5.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPilchParilBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 485 vs 436 / 84150.5%51.8%245 / 485 vs 436 / 841Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParilPilch 2.38/Paril 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.8%
Paril · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pilch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 1 · 15:30J. Pilch—119301O. Paril—61111113
LJul 1 · 10:00J. Pilch—551161O. Paril—11111113
LApr 28 · 07:00J. Pilch—991161O. Paril—11117113
LJan 29 · 09:00J. Pilch—117111072O. Paril—711812113
WJan 22 · 14:30J. Pilch—1111133O. Paril—93110
WJan 22 · 11:00J. Pilch—851111143O. Paril—111195122
LJan 20 · 13:30J. Pilch—41151282O. Paril—1181110113
WDec 20 · 11:00J. Pilch—1112113O. Paril—21070
LDec 15 · 11:00J. Pilch—7230O. Paril—1111113
LDec 6 · 14:30J. Pilch—123251O. Paril—101111113
J. Pilch10
WSep 7 · 12:30J. Pilch1.731161110123M. Navedla2.00611512102LSep 7 · 10:00T. Dousek1.611111113J. Pilch2.209980LAug 2 · 17:30M. Kratochvil2.2014411113J. Pilch1.611211621LAug 2 · 16:30M. Kratochvil2.00212411113J. Pilch1.73111011672WAug 2 · 15:30J. Pilch2.251111711113J. Plachta1.5775111362WAug 2 · 14:30M. Szwarc1.8511790J. Pilch1.851311113WAug 2 · 13:30J. Pilch1.911311113O. Paril1.8011590LAug 2 · 12:30M. Szwarc2.001111113J. Pilch1.738880WAug 2 · 10:30L. Prikasky1.8310580J. Pilch1.831211113WAug 1 · 17:08M. Szwarc1.80119351J. Pilch1.9121111113
O. Paril10
LSep 6 · 20:58M. Biolek1.801211113O. Paril1.9110950LSep 6 · 20:00M. Biolek1.7311128113O. Paril2.007101181LSep 6 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.4471113133O. Paril2.6311411111LSep 6 · 18:30O. Paril2.0013790J. Dzida1.731511113WSep 5 · 13:29M. Biolek1.801110661O. Paril1.9171211113WSep 5 · 12:30M. Cabis1.6151113872O. Paril2.201151111113WSep 5 · 11:30O. Paril2.0011116123M. Biolek1.735511101LSep 5 · 10:30T. Zika1.8313811113O. Paril1.831111781WSep 4 · 13:30O. Paril1.941113113J. Dzida1.6851180LAug 2 · 13:30J. Pilch1.911311113O. Paril1.8011590
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