TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12345649
Played Aug 2Finished
Jakub Pilch
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1171157111113116
Jakub Plachta
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:33 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeJakub Plachta to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Pilch above · Jakub Plachta below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 93 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Jakub Plachta at 63.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Pilch 2–7 Jakub Plachta Jakub Pilch has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:33What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Plachta
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-7 in 9
Plachta
Wrong
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pilch 1893 vs Plachta 1711
Pilch
Correct
both rated, 181 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pilch 80% vs Plachta 40%
Pilch
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pilch 60% vs Plachta 20%
Pilch
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pilch +2 · Plachta -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Plachta) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plachta form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPilch 2.25 / Plachta 1.57
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Plachta)-4.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #12345649
Pilch2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 35 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back33% 14 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Plachta1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite48% won 20 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomePilch2wins
AwayPlachta7wins
3 of 9 to a deciderPlachta leads 7–2, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePilch40%2 of 5
AwayPlachta100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pilch5Plachta4n = 9Pilch took 5 of 9
S2Pilch3Plachta6n = 9Plachta took 6 of 9
S3Pilch2Plachta7n = 9Plachta took 7 of 9
S4Pilch2Plachta4n = 6Plachta took 4 of 6
S5Pilch1Plachta2n = 3Plachta took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricPilchPlachtaPilch − PlachtaBasisWins27−5in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match34.938.7−3.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPilchPlachtaBasisWin rate · lifetime248 / 489 vs 73 / 14950.7%49%248 / 489 vs 73 / 149Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlachtaPilch 2.25/Plachta 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Plachta · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pilch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 2 · 15:30J. Pilch—1111711113J. Plachta—75111362
LJul 20 · 16:30J. Pilch—115881J. Plachta—61111113
WJul 14 · 13:28J. Pilch—1111113J. Plachta—7980
LJul 14 · 11:00J. Pilch—911771J. Plachta—11811113
LNov 17 · 11:00J. Pilch—9470J. Plachta—1111113
LJul 29 · 17:30J. Pilch—66141172J. Plachta—1111128113
LJul 29 · 16:00J. Pilch—117991J. Plachta—21111113
LJul 27 · 07:00J. Pilch—10280J. Plachta—1211113
LJul 14 · 10:00J. Pilch—11781172J. Plachta—711117113
J. Pilch10
WSep 7 · 12:30J. Pilch1.731161110123M. Navedla2.00611512102LSep 7 · 10:00T. Dousek1.611111113J. Pilch2.209980LAug 2 · 17:30M. Kratochvil2.2014411113J. Pilch1.611211621LAug 2 · 16:30M. Kratochvil2.00212411113J. Pilch1.73111011672WAug 2 · 14:30M. Szwarc1.8511790J. Pilch1.851311113WAug 2 · 13:30J. Pilch1.911311113O. Paril1.8011590LAug 2 · 12:30M. Szwarc2.001111113J. Pilch1.738880WAug 2 · 11:30J. Pilch2.381111113O. Paril1.537640WAug 2 · 10:30L. Prikasky1.8310580J. Pilch1.831211113WAug 1 · 17:08M. Szwarc1.80119351J. Pilch1.9121111113
J. Plachta10
WAug 2 · 16:59J. Plachta1.8011311113M. Szwarc1.91411751WAug 2 · 16:00J. Plachta2.101211133M. Szwarc1.67108110LAug 2 · 14:00J. Plachta1.67651191M. Kratochvil2.1011117113LJul 20 · 17:28L. Prikasky1.6781112113J. Plachta2.101161041WJul 20 · 16:30J. Plachta1.5761111113J. Pilch2.25115881LJul 20 · 15:00J. Plachta1.918111013102L. Prikasky1.801161211123WJul 20 · 14:00M. Grundel1.839750J. Plachta1.831111113LJul 19 · 17:00M. Vavrecka2.20133913113J. Plachta1.611111111182LJul 19 · 16:30M. Cabis1.801213113J. Plachta1.91101180LJul 19 · 15:30J. Plachta2.25111161162P. Wawrosz1.57139118113
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