TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087374
Played Sep 7Finished
Tomas Dousek
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119119118––––
Jakub Pilch
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:52 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Dousek above · Jakub Pilch below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 59 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Tomas Dousek at 57.7%
59 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Dousek 7–6 Jakub Pilch Jakub Pilch has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:52What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Dousek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dousek 1815 vs Pilch 1811
Dousek
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dousek 40% vs Pilch 60%
Pilch
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousek 30% vs Pilch 70%
Pilch
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousek -1 · Pilch -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Dousek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pilch form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousek 1.61 / Pilch 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Dousek)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087374
Dousek1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 117 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it75% 90 of 120
Pilch2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 34 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back32% 12 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDousek5wins
AwayPilch5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDousek80%4 of 5
AwayPilch80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dousek5Pilch5n = 10split evenly
S2Dousek5Pilch5n = 10split evenly
S3Dousek6Pilch4n = 10Dousek took 6 of 10
S4Dousek2Pilch4n = 6Pilch took 4 of 6
S5Dousek2Pilch2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDousekPilchD − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.035.6+0.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousekPilchBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 443 vs 220 / 43652.8%50.5%234 / 443 vs 220 / 436Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousekDousek 1.61/Pilch 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dousek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 21 · 10:30T. Dousek—11911113J. Pilch—411441
WJun 12 · 10:00T. Dousek—1111113J. Pilch—4780
WFeb 23 · 11:30T. Dousek—411111113J. Pilch—11981162
LDec 29 · 14:01T. Dousek—114961J. Pilch—61111113
LDec 29 · 12:00T. Dousek—81151192J. Pilch—119118113
LDec 23 · 13:59T. Dousek—9380J. Pilch—1111103
WDec 23 · 12:00T. Dousek—119148113J. Pilch—911121182
LDec 6 · 11:30T. Dousek—8890J. Pilch—1111113
WNov 9 · 11:00T. Dousek—1111113J. Pilch—0970
LAug 31 · 17:00T. Dousek—51112592J. Pilch—1151011113
T. Dousek10
WSep 7 · 12:00T. Dousek1.6171111113P. Wawrosz2.20117881LSep 7 · 11:30M. Navedla2.501111123T. Dousek1.5098100LSep 6 · 21:30T. Dousek1.46127921P. Wawrosz2.36101111113WSep 6 · 20:00R. Polasek1.917811141T. Dousek1.8011117163WSep 6 · 19:00M. Vavrecka1.91711681T. Dousek1.8011911113LSep 6 · 18:30T. Dousek1.6111127982P. Wawrosz2.204101111113LSep 5 · 16:58T. Dousek1.7361181182T. Zika2.00117117113LSep 5 · 16:00T. Dousek2.5011911842M. Biolek1.50711811113WSep 5 · 15:30T. Zika2.101112111182T. Dousek1.67814913113LSep 5 · 14:00T. Dousek1.809911101R. Polasek1.9111117123
J. Pilch10
WSep 7 · 11:00J. Pilch1.8371113113P. Wawrosz1.831171161LAug 2 · 17:30M. Kratochvil2.2014411113J. Pilch1.611211621LAug 2 · 16:30M. Kratochvil2.00212411113J. Pilch1.73111011672WAug 2 · 15:30J. Pilch2.251111711113J. Plachta1.5775111362WAug 2 · 14:30M. Szwarc1.8511790J. Pilch1.851311113WAug 2 · 13:30J. Pilch1.911311113O. Paril1.8011590LAug 2 · 12:30M. Szwarc2.001111113J. Pilch1.738880WAug 2 · 11:30J. Pilch2.381111113O. Paril1.537640WAug 2 · 10:30L. Prikasky1.8310580J. Pilch1.831211113WAug 1 · 17:08M. Szwarc1.80119351J. Pilch1.9121111113
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