TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12345511
Played Aug 2Finished
Matej Szwarc
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118118––––
Jakub Pilch
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Pilch to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMatej Szwarc above · Jakub Pilch below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 57 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jakub Pilch at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Matej Szwarc 2–3 Jakub Pilch Matej Szwarc has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:05What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pilch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szwarc 1648 vs Pilch 1883
Pilch
Wrong
both rated, 235 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szwarc 20% vs Pilch 80%
Pilch
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szwarc 10% vs Pilch 60%
Pilch
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szwarc -4 · Pilch +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Pilch) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pilch form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzwarc 2.00 / Pilch 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Pilch)+1.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12345511
Szwarc2.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 7 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back8% 1 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Pilch1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite53% won 73 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it70% 46 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSzwarc2wins
AwayPilch3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderPilch leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzwarc66.7%2 of 3
AwayPilchn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szwarc3Pilch2n = 5Szwarc took 3 of 5
S2Szwarc1Pilch4n = 5Pilch took 4 of 5
S3Szwarc3Pilch2n = 5Szwarc took 3 of 5
S4Szwarc1Pilch3n = 4Pilch took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricSzwarcPilchS − PBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match38.842.0−3.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzwarcPilchBasisWin rate · lifetime13 / 38 vs 245 / 48534.2%50.5%13 / 38 vs 245 / 485Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PilchSzwarc 2.00/Pilch 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Pilch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Szwarc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 1 · 17:08M. Szwarc—119351J. Pilch—21111113
LAug 1 · 16:30M. Szwarc—71113682J. Pilch—1181111113
LAug 1 · 12:30M. Szwarc—7770J. Pilch—1111113
WJun 12 · 13:04M. Szwarc—158118143J. Pilch—1311711122
WJun 12 · 11:00M. Szwarc—121011113J. Pilch—1012681
M. Szwarc10
WAug 8 · 13:29D. Tomica1.83106111162M. Szwarc1.83121156113WAug 8 · 12:30M. Szwarc1.73118811113M. Grundel2.0071111982LAug 8 · 11:00M. Szwarc1.91113411D. Tomica1.8071111113WAug 8 · 10:00M. Kratochvil1.9110111391M. Szwarc1.8012915113LAug 7 · 08:59M. Szwarc2.25125551O. Paril1.57101111113WAug 7 · 08:00O. Paril1.53119111292M. Szwarc2.381311810113LAug 7 · 07:00M. Vavrecka1.911111113M. Szwarc1.804990WAug 7 · 06:30M. Szwarc1.83118116113R. Polasek1.8391171152WAug 5 · 16:58M. Szwarc1.67111111113M. Grundel2.10139591WAug 5 · 16:30M. Grundel1.73571791M. Szwarc2.00111115113
J. Pilch10
WSep 7 · 12:30J. Pilch1.731161110123M. Navedla2.00611512102LSep 7 · 10:00T. Dousek1.611111113J. Pilch2.209980LAug 2 · 17:30M. Kratochvil2.2014411113J. Pilch1.611211621LAug 2 · 16:30M. Kratochvil2.00212411113J. Pilch1.73111011672WAug 2 · 15:30J. Pilch2.251111711113J. Plachta1.5775111362WAug 2 · 14:30M. Szwarc1.8511790J. Pilch1.851311113WAug 2 · 13:30J. Pilch1.911311113O. Paril1.8011590WAug 2 · 11:30J. Pilch2.381111113O. Paril1.537640WAug 2 · 10:30L. Prikasky1.8310580J. Pilch1.831211113WAug 1 · 17:08M. Szwarc1.80119351J. Pilch1.9121111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Szwarc
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J. Pilch
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