TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12378063
Played Aug 8Finished
Matej Szwarc
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117811811119118
Matej Grundel
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:35 and never touched — 62.2% is still 62.2%
Graded at full timeMatej Szwarc to win
62.2%
62.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Szwarc above · Matej Grundel below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 95 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Matej Szwarc at 62.2%
95 points played in total.
H2H Matej Szwarc 2–0 Matej Grundel Matej Grundel has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:35What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Szwarc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Szwarc 1631 vs Grundel 1724
Grundel
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szwarc 40% vs Grundel 60%
Grundel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szwarc 50% vs Grundel 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szwarc -1 · Grundel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Grundel) · live re-read · sealed at 38% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szwarc form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzwarc 1.73 / Grundel 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Grundel)+7.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12378063
Szwarc1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite40% won 8 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Grundel2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 32 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back14% 2 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSzwarc2wins
AwayGrundel0wins
Szwarc leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home2
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSzwarcGrundelS − GBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match46.037.0+9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzwarcGrundelBasisWin rate · lifetime20 / 54 vs 149 / 28537%52.3%20 / 54 vs 149 / 285Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrundelSzwarc 1.73/Grundel 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Grundel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Szwarc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 5 · 16:58M. Szwarc—111111113M. Grundel—139591
WAug 5 · 16:30M. Szwarc—111115113M. Grundel—571791
M. Szwarc10
WAug 8 · 13:29D. Tomica1.83106111162M. Szwarc1.83121156113LAug 8 · 11:00M. Szwarc1.91113411D. Tomica1.8071111113WAug 8 · 10:00M. Kratochvil1.9110111391M. Szwarc1.8012915113LAug 7 · 08:59M. Szwarc2.25125551O. Paril1.57101111113WAug 7 · 08:00O. Paril1.53119111292M. Szwarc2.381311810113LAug 7 · 07:00M. Vavrecka1.911111113M. Szwarc1.804990WAug 7 · 06:30M. Szwarc1.83118116113R. Polasek1.8391171152WAug 5 · 16:58M. Szwarc1.67111111113M. Grundel2.10139591WAug 5 · 16:30M. Grundel1.73571791M. Szwarc2.00111115113LAug 5 · 15:30M. Szwarc2.2511791162L. Prikasky1.57911113113
M. Grundel10
LSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191LSep 3 · 16:00M. Grundel2.1012871192M. Skotnica1.671011119113WSep 3 · 15:30R. Urbaniec3.253660M. Grundel1.331111113WSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WAug 27 · 17:28M. Grundel1.831111109113L. Prikasky1.8382121192LAug 27 · 16:00L. Prikasky1.83119811113M. Grundel1.8361111882WAug 27 · 15:00D. Tomica2.257450M. Grundel1.571111113WAug 27 · 14:30M. Grundel2.001111113L. Velebil1.737750LAug 5 · 16:58M. Szwarc1.67111111113M. Grundel2.10139591LAug 5 · 16:30M. Grundel1.73571791M. Szwarc2.00111115113
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