TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12370105
Played Aug 7Finished
Matej Szwarc
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119811117611115
Radovan Polasek
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:35 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Szwarc to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Szwarc above · Radovan Polasek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 90 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Matej Szwarc at 56.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Matej Szwarc 2–2 Radovan Polasek Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:35What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Polasek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szwarc 1685 vs Polasek 1789
Polasek
Wrong
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szwarc 40% vs Polasek 60%
Polasek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szwarc 40% vs Polasek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szwarc +2 · Polasek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Polasek) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szwarc form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzwarc 1.83 / Polasek 1.83
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Polasek)+7.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12370105
Szwarc1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Polasek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSzwarc2wins
AwayPolasek2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzwarc66.7%2 of 3
AwayPolasekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szwarc3Polasek1n = 4Szwarc took 3 of 4
S2Szwarc1Polasek3n = 4Polasek took 3 of 4
S3Szwarc2Polasek2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricSzwarcPolasekS − PBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match34.036.2−2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzwarcPolasekBasisWin rate · lifetime22 / 56 vs 380 / 74039.3%51.4%22 / 56 vs 380 / 740Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolasekSzwarc 1.83/Polasek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Polasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Szwarc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 7 · 06:30M. Szwarc—118116113R. Polasek—91171152
WAug 1 · 15:00M. Szwarc—1611113R. Polasek—14840
LAug 1 · 13:01M. Szwarc—126731R. Polasek—101111113
LAug 1 · 11:00M. Szwarc—9860R. Polasek—1111113
M. Szwarc10
WAug 8 · 13:29D. Tomica1.83106111162M. Szwarc1.83121156113WAug 8 · 12:30M. Szwarc1.73118811113M. Grundel2.0071111982LAug 8 · 11:00M. Szwarc1.91113411D. Tomica1.8071111113WAug 8 · 10:00M. Kratochvil1.9110111391M. Szwarc1.8012915113LAug 7 · 08:59M. Szwarc2.25125551O. Paril1.57101111113WAug 7 · 08:00O. Paril1.53119111292M. Szwarc2.381311810113LAug 7 · 07:00M. Vavrecka1.911111113M. Szwarc1.804990WAug 5 · 16:58M. Szwarc1.67111111113M. Grundel2.10139591WAug 5 · 16:30M. Grundel1.73571791M. Szwarc2.00111115113LAug 5 · 15:30M. Szwarc2.2511791162L. Prikasky1.57911113113
R. Polasek10
LSep 6 · 21:00R. Polasek1.73111312882M. Vavrecka2.006151011113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Polasek1.917811141T. Dousek1.8011117163WSep 6 · 19:30P. Wawrosz1.8021250R. Polasek1.911114113LSep 6 · 18:00R. Polasek1.7381111862M. Vavrecka2.00119611113WSep 5 · 17:29M. Biolek1.4411671122R. Polasek2.63711115113LSep 5 · 16:30R. Polasek1.8311410101T. Zika1.8331112123LSep 5 · 15:00R. Polasek2.2011441182M. Biolek1.61411119113WSep 5 · 14:00T. Dousek1.809911101R. Polasek1.9111117123WSep 4 · 12:59R. Polasek1.911111113T. Dousek1.808880WSep 4 · 12:00T. Dousek1.831181081R. Polasek1.8391112113
Upcoming Matches
M. Szwarc
Nothing scheduled
R. Polasek
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