TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12377943
Played Aug 8Finished
Matej Szwarc
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117311411111––
Daniel Tomica
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:07 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeDaniel Tomica to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Szwarc above · Daniel Tomica below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 1-11
Point 59 set 4, 1-11 — our read held Daniel Tomica at 56.4%
59 points played in total.
H2H Matej Szwarc 1–1 Daniel Tomica Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:07What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tomica
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Szwarc 1685 vs Tomica 1720
Tomica
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szwarc 60% vs Tomica 40%
Szwarc
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szwarc 50% vs Tomica 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szwarc +1 · Tomica +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tomica) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tomica form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzwarc 1.91 / Tomica 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tomica)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12377943
Szwarc1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 11 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Tomica1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 23 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it71% 17 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSzwarc1wins
AwayTomica1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSzwarcTomicaS − TBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match32.042.0−10.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzwarcTomicaBasisWin rate · lifetime22 / 56 vs 91 / 18739.3%48.7%22 / 56 vs 91 / 187Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TomicaSzwarc 1.91/Tomica 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tomica · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tomica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 8 · 13:29M. Szwarc—121156113D. Tomica—106111162
LAug 8 · 11:00M. Szwarc—113411D. Tomica—71111113
M. Szwarc10
WAug 8 · 13:29D. Tomica1.83106111162M. Szwarc1.83121156113WAug 8 · 12:30M. Szwarc1.73118811113M. Grundel2.0071111982WAug 8 · 10:00M. Kratochvil1.9110111391M. Szwarc1.8012915113LAug 7 · 08:59M. Szwarc2.25125551O. Paril1.57101111113WAug 7 · 08:00O. Paril1.53119111292M. Szwarc2.381311810113LAug 7 · 07:00M. Vavrecka1.911111113M. Szwarc1.804990WAug 7 · 06:30M. Szwarc1.83118116113R. Polasek1.8391171152WAug 5 · 16:58M. Szwarc1.67111111113M. Grundel2.10139591WAug 5 · 16:30M. Grundel1.73571791M. Szwarc2.00111115113LAug 5 · 15:30M. Szwarc2.2511791162L. Prikasky1.57911113113
D. Tomica10
WSep 4 · 17:03D. Tomica1.8513118113M. Navedla1.851131151LSep 4 · 16:30D. Tomica2.75117861L. Prikasky1.4091111113WSep 4 · 15:00D. Tomica1.7311811113M. Navedla2.00711841LSep 4 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.83111182113D. Tomica1.8363111142WAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113WAug 27 · 16:30D. Tomica2.2561111113L. Velebil1.57115931LAug 27 · 15:00D. Tomica2.257450M. Grundel1.571111113LAug 27 · 14:00L. Prikasky1.4491111113D. Tomica2.63118821WAug 22 · 12:58D. Tomica1.8319117113M. Vavrecka1.831751191LAug 8 · 13:29D. Tomica1.83106111162M. Szwarc1.83121156113
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