TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12376819
Played Aug 8Finished
Michal Kratochvil
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10121191315911––
Matej Szwarc
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:35 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeMatej Szwarc to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Kratochvil above · Matej Szwarc below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 90 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Matej Szwarc at 56.7%
90 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kratochvil 0–1 Matej Szwarc Michal Kratochvil has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:35What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Szwarc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kratochvil 1784 vs Szwarc 1622
Kratochvil
Wrong
both rated, 162 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kratochvil 40% vs Szwarc 60%
Szwarc
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kratochvil 50% vs Szwarc 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kratochvil -2 · Szwarc -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kratochvil) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kratochvil form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKratochvil 1.91 / Szwarc 1.80
Signal prob.60% / 41%
Edge (Kratochvil)+11.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12376819
Kratochvil1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 78 of 167
Down 0–1, comes back31% 30 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 51
Szwarc1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite40% won 8 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKratochvil0wins
AwaySzwarc1wins
Szwarc leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKratochvilSzwarcK − SBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match35.041.0−6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKratochvilSzwarcBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 509 vs 19 / 5249.7%36.5%253 / 509 vs 19 / 52Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KratochvilKratochvil 1.91/Szwarc 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.5%
Kratochvil · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Szwarc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJun 20 · 08:00M. Kratochvil—791181M. Szwarc—11118113
M. Kratochvil10
WSep 3 · 21:30R. Urbaniec2.00771171M. Kratochvil1.7311119113WSep 3 · 20:00M. Wollny2.20661181M. Kratochvil1.6111118113WSep 3 · 19:00V. Burdik2.201179101M. Kratochvil1.6191111123LSep 3 · 18:30M. Kratochvil1.50914881R. Urbaniec2.50111211113LAug 30 · 12:59T. Kos1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.756980LAug 30 · 12:00E. Mares1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.754890LAug 30 · 11:00Z. Bilek1.83791111143M. Kratochvil1.83111146122LAug 30 · 10:30M. Kratochvil3.00911115142T. Kos1.36116611163LAug 30 · 08:58M. Kratochvil3.00101111782E. Mares1.36125911113WAug 30 · 08:00M. Kratochvil3.00611718113E. Mares1.36119111662
M. Szwarc10
WAug 8 · 13:29D. Tomica1.83106111162M. Szwarc1.83121156113WAug 8 · 12:30M. Szwarc1.73118811113M. Grundel2.0071111982LAug 8 · 11:00M. Szwarc1.91113411D. Tomica1.8071111113LAug 7 · 08:59M. Szwarc2.25125551O. Paril1.57101111113WAug 7 · 08:00O. Paril1.53119111292M. Szwarc2.381311810113LAug 7 · 07:00M. Vavrecka1.911111113M. Szwarc1.804990WAug 7 · 06:30M. Szwarc1.83118116113R. Polasek1.8391171152WAug 5 · 16:58M. Szwarc1.67111111113M. Grundel2.10139591WAug 5 · 16:30M. Grundel1.73571791M. Szwarc2.00111115113LAug 5 · 15:30M. Szwarc2.2511791162L. Prikasky1.57911113113
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