TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12370029
Played Aug 7Finished
Michal Vavrecka
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114119119––––
Matej Szwarc
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Vavrecka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Vavrecka above · Matej Szwarc below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Michal Vavrecka at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vavrecka 1–1 Matej Szwarc Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:07What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Szwarc
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Vavrecka 1832 vs Szwarc 1685
Vavrecka
Correct
both rated, 147 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavrecka 40% vs Szwarc 60%
Szwarc
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavrecka 50% vs Szwarc 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavrecka +2 · Szwarc +3
Szwarc
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Vavrecka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavrecka form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavrecka 1.91 / Szwarc 1.80
Signal prob.60% / 41%
Edge (Vavrecka)+11.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12370029
Vavrecka1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 177 of 386
Down 0–1, comes back27% 57 of 212
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 99
Szwarc1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite46% won 10 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeVavrecka1wins
AwaySzwarc1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricVavreckaSzwarcV − SBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match29.529.50.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavreckaSzwarcBasisWin rate · lifetime1022 / 2023 vs 22 / 5650.5%39.3%1022 / 2023 vs 22 / 56Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VavreckaVavrecka 1.91/Szwarc 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.5%
Vavrecka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vavrecka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 7 · 07:00M. Vavrecka—1111113M. Szwarc—4990
LJun 20 · 10:30M. Vavrecka—13940M. Szwarc—1511113
M. Vavrecka10
WSep 6 · 21:00R. Polasek1.73111312882M. Vavrecka2.006151011113LSep 6 · 20:30M. Vavrecka1.80117761P. Wawrosz1.9191111113LSep 6 · 19:00M. Vavrecka1.91711681T. Dousek1.8011911113WSep 6 · 18:00R. Polasek1.7381111862M. Vavrecka2.00119611113WSep 5 · 09:30M. Vavrecka1.781612113P. Wawrosz1.93141050WSep 5 · 08:00M. Vavrecka1.57135411163M. Navedla2.251111117142WSep 5 · 07:30L. Prikasky1.8391180M. Vavrecka1.831113113LSep 5 · 06:00M. Vavrecka1.7312711852P. Wawrosz2.001011211113WAug 31 · 09:00M. Vavrecka1.8317911113T. Dousek1.831511741LAug 31 · 08:30M. Vavrecka2.001251181R. Polasek1.7314117113
M. Szwarc10
WAug 8 · 13:29D. Tomica1.83106111162M. Szwarc1.83121156113WAug 8 · 12:30M. Szwarc1.73118811113M. Grundel2.0071111982LAug 8 · 11:00M. Szwarc1.91113411D. Tomica1.8071111113WAug 8 · 10:00M. Kratochvil1.9110111391M. Szwarc1.8012915113LAug 7 · 08:59M. Szwarc2.25125551O. Paril1.57101111113WAug 7 · 08:00O. Paril1.53119111292M. Szwarc2.381311810113WAug 7 · 06:30M. Szwarc1.83118116113R. Polasek1.8391171152WAug 5 · 16:58M. Szwarc1.67111111113M. Grundel2.10139591WAug 5 · 16:30M. Grundel1.73571791M. Szwarc2.00111115113LAug 5 · 15:30M. Szwarc2.2511791162L. Prikasky1.57911113113
Upcoming Matches
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