TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12345510
Played Aug 2Finished
Matej Szwarc
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113711911––––
Jakub Pilch
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Pilch to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Szwarc above · Jakub Pilch below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-9
Point 60 set 3, 9-9 — our read held Jakub Pilch at 54.0%
60 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Matej Szwarc 3–4 Jakub Pilch Matej Szwarc has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:05What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Pilch
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szwarc 1684 vs Pilch 1881
Pilch
Correct
both rated, 197 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szwarc 40% vs Pilch 80%
Pilch
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szwarc 30% vs Pilch 60%
Pilch
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szwarc +2 · Pilch +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pilch)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pilch form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzwarc 1.85 / Pilch 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pilch)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12345510
Szwarc1.85
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Pilch1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSzwarc3wins
AwayPilch4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderPilch leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzwarc75%3 of 4
AwayPilch100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szwarc4Pilch3n = 7Szwarc took 4 of 7
S2Szwarc2Pilch5n = 7Pilch took 5 of 7
S3Szwarc4Pilch3n = 7Szwarc took 4 of 7
S4Szwarc1Pilch3n = 4Pilch took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricSzwarcPilchS − PBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match36.338.4−2.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzwarcPilchBasisWin rate · lifetime15 / 41 vs 247 / 48836.6%50.6%15 / 41 vs 247 / 488Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PilchSzwarc 1.85/Pilch 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pilch · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pilch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 2 · 14:30M. Szwarc—11790J. Pilch—1311113
WAug 2 · 12:30M. Szwarc—1111113J. Pilch—8880
LAug 1 · 17:08M. Szwarc—119351J. Pilch—21111113
LAug 1 · 16:30M. Szwarc—71113682J. Pilch—1181111113
LAug 1 · 12:30M. Szwarc—7770J. Pilch—1111113
WJun 12 · 13:04M. Szwarc—158118143J. Pilch—1311711122
WJun 12 · 11:00M. Szwarc—121011113J. Pilch—1012681
M. Szwarc10
WAug 8 · 13:29D. Tomica1.83106111162M. Szwarc1.83121156113WAug 8 · 12:30M. Szwarc1.73118811113M. Grundel2.0071111982LAug 8 · 11:00M. Szwarc1.91113411D. Tomica1.8071111113WAug 8 · 10:00M. Kratochvil1.9110111391M. Szwarc1.8012915113LAug 7 · 08:59M. Szwarc2.25125551O. Paril1.57101111113WAug 7 · 08:00O. Paril1.53119111292M. Szwarc2.381311810113LAug 7 · 07:00M. Vavrecka1.911111113M. Szwarc1.804990WAug 7 · 06:30M. Szwarc1.83118116113R. Polasek1.8391171152WAug 5 · 16:58M. Szwarc1.67111111113M. Grundel2.10139591WAug 5 · 16:30M. Grundel1.73571791M. Szwarc2.00111115113
J. Pilch10
WSep 7 · 12:30J. Pilch1.731161110123M. Navedla2.00611512102LSep 7 · 10:00T. Dousek1.611111113J. Pilch2.209980LAug 2 · 17:30M. Kratochvil2.2014411113J. Pilch1.611211621LAug 2 · 16:30M. Kratochvil2.00212411113J. Pilch1.73111011672WAug 2 · 15:30J. Pilch2.251111711113J. Plachta1.5775111362WAug 2 · 13:30J. Pilch1.911311113O. Paril1.8011590LAug 2 · 12:30M. Szwarc2.001111113J. Pilch1.738880WAug 2 · 11:30J. Pilch2.381111113O. Paril1.537640WAug 2 · 10:30L. Prikasky1.8310580J. Pilch1.831211113WAug 1 · 17:08M. Szwarc1.80119351J. Pilch1.9121111113
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