TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092804
Played Sep 7Finished
Matyas Navedla
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711116118114––
Tomas Dousek
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:09 and never touched — 61.0% is still 61.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
61.0%
61.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMatyas Navedla above · Tomas Dousek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 69 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Tomas Dousek at 61.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Navedla 5–15 Tomas Dousek Matyas Navedla has won 5 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dousek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-15 in 20
Dousek
Wrong
gap of 10 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Navedla 1761 vs Dousek 1822
Dousek
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Navedla 40% vs Dousek 80%
Dousek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Navedla 30% vs Dousek 50%
Dousek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Navedla -1 · Dousek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Dousek) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dousek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNavedla 2.10 / Dousek 1.67
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Dousek)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092804
Navedla2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 139 of 326
Down 0–1, comes back25% 42 of 166
Down 0–2, comes back13% 10 of 78
Dousek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 117 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it75% 90 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNavedla3wins
AwayDousek7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDousek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNavedla60%3 of 5
AwayDousek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Navedla5Dousek5n = 10split evenly
S2Navedla8Dousek2n = 10Navedla took 8 of 10
S3Navedla5Dousek5n = 10split evenly
S4Navedla1Dousek6n = 7Dousek took 6 of 7
S5Navedla0Dousek3n = 3Dousek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNavedlaDousekN − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.237.5−1.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNavedlaDousekBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 750 vs 236 / 44647.7%52.9%358 / 750 vs 236 / 446Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousekNavedla 2.10/Dousek 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.2%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Navedla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 11:30M. Navedla—1111123T. Dousek—98100
LAug 26 · 12:30M. Navedla—811591T. Dousek—11311113
LAug 24 · 09:28M. Navedla—11119372T. Dousek—971111113
LAug 24 · 07:30M. Navedla—72111172T. Dousek—111147113
LAug 14 · 13:06M. Navedla—1041291T. Dousek—121110113
WAug 14 · 11:00M. Navedla—1111113T. Dousek—7790
WJul 3 · 13:30M. Navedla—1111113T. Dousek—9640
LJul 3 · 11:30M. Navedla—1011761T. Dousek—12811113
LMay 27 · 17:30M. Navedla—7118101T. Dousek—11811123
LMay 27 · 14:00M. Navedla—11117882T. Dousek—971111113
M. Navedla10
LSep 7 · 12:30J. Pilch1.731161110123M. Navedla2.00611512102WSep 7 · 11:30M. Navedla2.501111123T. Dousek1.5098100WSep 7 · 10:30P. Wawrosz1.738550M. Navedla2.001111113WSep 5 · 09:00M. Navedla1.8311813113L. Prikasky1.836111171LSep 5 · 08:00M. Vavrecka1.57135411163M. Navedla2.251111117142LSep 5 · 07:00P. Wawrosz1.73881111113M. Navedla2.0011117692WSep 5 · 06:30M. Navedla1.911111118113L. Prikasky1.8091351192LSep 4 · 17:03D. Tomica1.8513118113M. Navedla1.851131151LSep 4 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.671111143M. Navedla2.1067120LSep 4 · 15:00D. Tomica1.7311811113M. Navedla2.00711841
T. Dousek10
WSep 7 · 12:00T. Dousek1.6171111113P. Wawrosz2.20117881LSep 7 · 11:30M. Navedla2.501111123T. Dousek1.5098100WSep 7 · 10:00T. Dousek1.611111113J. Pilch2.209980LSep 6 · 21:30T. Dousek1.46127921P. Wawrosz2.36101111113WSep 6 · 20:00R. Polasek1.917811141T. Dousek1.8011117163WSep 6 · 19:00M. Vavrecka1.91711681T. Dousek1.8011911113LSep 6 · 18:30T. Dousek1.6111127982P. Wawrosz2.204101111113LSep 5 · 16:58T. Dousek1.7361181182T. Zika2.00117117113LSep 5 · 16:00T. Dousek2.5011911842M. Biolek1.50711811113WSep 5 · 15:30T. Zika2.101112111182T. Dousek1.67814913113
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