TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13091842
Played Sep 8Finished
Matyas Navedla
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012116611119611
Radovan Polasek
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:40 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeRadovan Polasek to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatyas Navedla above · Radovan Polasek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 93 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Radovan Polasek at 54.9%
93 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Navedla 22–29 Radovan Polasek Matyas Navedla has won 22 of their 51 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:40What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Polasek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-29 in 51
Polasek
Correct
gap of 7 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Navedla 1768 vs Polasek 1829
Polasek
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Navedla 60% vs Polasek 40%
Navedla
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Navedla 50% vs Polasek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Navedla -1 · Polasek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Polasek) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polasek form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNavedla 2.20 / Polasek 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Polasek)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13091842
Navedla2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 139 of 326
Down 0–1, comes back25% 41 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 76
Polasek1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 193 of 372
Up 2–0, closes it84% 91 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it70% 131 of 186
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNavedla4wins
AwayPolasek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPolasek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNavedla66.7%4 of 6
AwayPolasek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Navedla6Polasek4n = 10Navedla took 6 of 10
S2Navedla5Polasek5n = 10split evenly
S3Navedla5Polasek5n = 10split evenly
S4Navedla2Polasek5n = 7Polasek took 5 of 7
S5Navedla1Polasek2n = 3Polasek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNavedlaPolasekN − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.239.3−2.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNavedlaPolasekBasisWin rate · lifetime359 / 753 vs 441 / 86747.7%50.9%359 / 753 vs 441 / 867Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolasekNavedla 2.20/Polasek 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Polasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Polasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 06:30M. Navedla—11116113R. Polasek—981141
WAug 23 · 19:30M. Navedla—1111143R. Polasek—79120
LAug 14 · 10:00M. Navedla—117971R. Polasek—71111113
WAug 12 · 07:30M. Navedla—1112113R. Polasek—81090
LAug 10 · 08:00M. Navedla—61191172R. Polasek—119115113
LJul 30 · 08:58M. Navedla—771171R. Polasek—11118113
WJul 30 · 08:30M. Navedla—1210119113R. Polasek—101271192
LJul 28 · 17:00M. Navedla—91010R. Polasek—1112113
LJul 28 · 15:30M. Navedla—121110732R. Polasek—1071211113
LJul 19 · 19:00M. Navedla—791381R. Polasek—111111113
M. Navedla10
LSep 8 · 06:30P. Wawrosz1.53111111113M. Navedla2.38813481WSep 7 · 13:30M. Navedla2.1071111113T. Dousek1.67116841LSep 7 · 12:30J. Pilch1.731161110123M. Navedla2.00611512102WSep 7 · 11:30M. Navedla2.501111123T. Dousek1.5098100WSep 7 · 10:30P. Wawrosz1.738550M. Navedla2.001111113WSep 5 · 09:00M. Navedla1.8311813113L. Prikasky1.836111171LSep 5 · 08:00M. Vavrecka1.57135411163M. Navedla2.251111117142LSep 5 · 07:00P. Wawrosz1.73881111113M. Navedla2.0011117692WSep 5 · 06:30M. Navedla1.911111118113L. Prikasky1.8091351192LSep 4 · 17:03D. Tomica1.8513118113M. Navedla1.851131151
R. Polasek10
LSep 8 · 08:00R. Polasek1.8312881192P. Wawrosz1.831011116113WSep 8 · 06:00R. Polasek1.57111175113J. Pilch2.2576111132LSep 6 · 21:00R. Polasek1.73111312882M. Vavrecka2.006151011113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Polasek1.917811141T. Dousek1.8011117163WSep 6 · 19:30P. Wawrosz1.8021250R. Polasek1.911114113LSep 6 · 18:00R. Polasek1.7381111862M. Vavrecka2.00119611113WSep 5 · 17:29M. Biolek1.4411671122R. Polasek2.63711115113LSep 5 · 16:30R. Polasek1.8311410101T. Zika1.8331112123LSep 5 · 15:00R. Polasek2.2011441182M. Biolek1.61411119113WSep 5 · 14:00T. Dousek1.809911101R. Polasek1.9111117123
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