TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13108747
Played Sep 11Finished
Ondrej Paril
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111012118115117
Pavel Wawrosz
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Paril to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Paril above · Pavel Wawrosz below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 90 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Ondrej Paril at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Paril 20–22 Pavel Wawrosz Ondrej Paril has won 20 of their 42 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:10What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Paril
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-22 in 42
Wawrosz
Wrong
gap of 2 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paril 1869 vs Wawrosz 1802
Paril
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paril 60% vs Wawrosz 80%
Wawrosz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paril 70% vs Wawrosz 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Paril -1 · Wawrosz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Paril)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wawrosz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParil 1.80 / Wawrosz 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Paril)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13108747
Paril1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 187 of 337
Up 2–0, closes it91% 85 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it76% 141 of 185
Wawrosz1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 57 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back35% 19 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back19% 5 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParil5wins
AwayWawrosz5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParil60%3 of 5
AwayWawrosz60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paril5Wawrosz5n = 10split evenly
S2Paril5Wawrosz5n = 10split evenly
S3Paril5Wawrosz5n = 10split evenly
S4Paril4Wawrosz4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricParilWawroszP − WBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.636.1+1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParilWawroszBasisWin rate · lifetime505 / 971 vs 208 / 40952%50.9%505 / 971 vs 208 / 409Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParilParil 1.80/Wawrosz 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Paril · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Paril won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 14:00O. Paril—11147113P. Wawrosz—0121181
LAug 12 · 18:30O. Paril—691191P. Wawrosz—11117113
WAug 12 · 14:00O. Paril—81111113P. Wawrosz—116171
WAug 9 · 10:00O. Paril—211511113P. Wawrosz—11611662
LAug 8 · 20:30O. Paril—1379111P. Wawrosz—111111133
WAug 8 · 15:00O. Paril—1111113P. Wawrosz—9670
LJul 31 · 08:30O. Paril—1461371P. Wawrosz—121115113
LJul 29 · 06:30O. Paril—91111372P. Wawrosz—117611113
LJul 25 · 10:00O. Paril—8490P. Wawrosz—1111113
WJul 23 · 09:30O. Paril—11911113P. Wawrosz—711651
O. Paril10
LSep 11 · 13:30O. Paril1.85881151P. Wawrosz1.8511119113WSep 11 · 12:00O. Paril1.731111113R. Polasek2.005590LSep 11 · 11:30R. Revay1.911113109113O. Paril1.80311121162LSep 10 · 13:30O. Paril1.738470R. Polasek2.001111113WSep 10 · 12:30O. Paril1.73111110113J. Pilch2.00251261WSep 10 · 11:00O. Paril1.44811193123M. Navedla2.631141711102LSep 10 · 10:00R. Polasek1.8311118113O. Paril1.83981191WSep 9 · 09:30O. Paril1.80111110113R. Polasek1.90891281WSep 9 · 08:30O. Paril1.73116128123R. Revay2.007111011102WSep 9 · 07:00O. Paril1.80711112113R. Polasek1.9111781192
P. Wawrosz10
WSep 11 · 13:30O. Paril1.85881151P. Wawrosz1.8511119113WSep 11 · 12:30P. Wawrosz1.8361211113R. Revay1.831110681WSep 11 · 11:00P. Wawrosz2.0011127113R. Polasek1.739101191LSep 8 · 09:29P. Wawrosz1.73711661R. Polasek2.0011411113WSep 8 · 08:00R. Polasek1.8312881192P. Wawrosz1.831011116113WSep 8 · 07:00J. Pilch1.73551171P. Wawrosz2.0011116113WSep 8 · 06:30P. Wawrosz1.53111111113M. Navedla2.38813481WSep 7 · 13:07J. Pilch1.72117271P. Wawrosz2.0041111113LSep 7 · 12:00T. Dousek1.6171111113P. Wawrosz2.20117881LSep 7 · 11:00J. Pilch1.8371113113P. Wawrosz1.831171161
Upcoming Matches
O. Paril
Nothing scheduled
P. Wawrosz
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