TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104098
Played Sep 10Finished
Ondrej Paril
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81111419173111210
Matyas Navedla
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:58 and never touched — 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeOndrej Paril to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Paril above · Matyas Navedla below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 19-17
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 106 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Ondrej Paril at 59.6%
106 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Paril 13–10 Matyas Navedla Matyas Navedla has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:58What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Paril
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-10 in 23
Paril
Correct
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paril 1891 vs Navedla 1809
Paril
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paril 100% vs Navedla 80%
Paril
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paril 50% vs Navedla 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Paril +5 · Navedla +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Paril) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Navedla form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParil 1.44 / Navedla 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Paril)+3.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104098
Paril1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 185 of 335
Up 2–0, closes it91% 84 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it76% 140 of 185
Navedla2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 140 of 327
Down 0–1, comes back25% 41 of 164
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParil6wins
AwayNavedla4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderParil leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParil71.4%5 of 7
AwayNavedla66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paril7Navedla3n = 10Paril took 7 of 10
S2Paril6Navedla4n = 10Paril took 6 of 10
S3Paril4Navedla6n = 10Navedla took 6 of 10
S4Paril2Navedla4n = 6Navedla took 4 of 6
S5Paril2Navedla1n = 3Paril took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricParilNavedlaP − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.834.4+2.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParilNavedlaBasisWin rate · lifetime503 / 967 vs 363 / 75852%47.9%503 / 967 vs 363 / 758Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParilParil 1.44/Navedla 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.1%
Paril · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Paril won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 16:30O. Paril—11118482M. Navedla—871111113
WAug 12 · 15:30O. Paril—12311113M. Navedla—1011761
WAug 11 · 09:30O. Paril—1111113M. Navedla—4660
WAug 11 · 07:30O. Paril—11118113M. Navedla—461171
WJul 30 · 07:00O. Paril—111158113M. Navedla—47111172
LJul 29 · 08:58O. Paril—115110M. Navedla—1311133
LJul 29 · 07:00O. Paril—113671M. Navedla—51111113
WJul 28 · 16:30O. Paril—8131111113M. Navedla—111161382
WJul 23 · 06:30O. Paril—1111133M. Navedla—37110
LJul 20 · 19:30O. Paril—8990M. Navedla—1111113
O. Paril10
LSep 10 · 10:00R. Polasek1.8311118113O. Paril1.83981191WSep 9 · 09:30O. Paril1.80111110113R. Polasek1.90891281WSep 9 · 08:30O. Paril1.73116128123R. Revay2.007111011102WSep 9 · 07:00O. Paril1.80711112113R. Polasek1.9111781192WSep 9 · 06:00M. Vavrecka2.20731491O. Paril1.61111112113WSep 7 · 21:00T. Dousek1.7310990O. Paril2.001211113LSep 7 · 20:00O. Paril2.75761171D. Opanasiuk1.4011118113LSep 7 · 19:30T. Dousek1.80111179113O. Paril1.9159111162LSep 7 · 18:00O. Paril1.61116971M. Vavrecka2.2051111113LSep 6 · 20:58M. Biolek1.801211113O. Paril1.9110950
M. Navedla10
WSep 10 · 12:00R. Polasek1.61101340M. Navedla2.201215113LSep 10 · 10:30M. Navedla2.007460J. Pilch1.731111113WSep 10 · 09:00M. Navedla2.1091111113M. Vavrecka1.67115451LSep 10 · 08:30M. Navedla2.0081090J. Pilch1.731112113WSep 10 · 07:00M. Navedla1.83611128113R. Revay1.83118101182WSep 10 · 06:00M. Vavrecka1.578111131M. Navedla2.2511133113WSep 8 · 08:58J. Pilch1.8091190M. Navedla1.911113113LSep 8 · 08:30J. Pilch1.80811711113M. Navedla1.9111511952LSep 8 · 07:30M. Navedla2.20101161162R. Polasek1.61126119113LSep 8 · 06:30P. Wawrosz1.53111111113M. Navedla2.38813481
Upcoming Matches
O. Paril3 of 4 neutral
M. Navedla
Nothing scheduled
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