TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087561
Played Sep 7Finished
Ondrej Paril
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
115611911711––
Michal Vavrecka
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:10 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeOndrej Paril to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Paril above · Michal Vavrecka below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Ondrej Paril at 60.1%
71 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Paril 31–22 Michal Vavrecka Michal Vavrecka has won 22 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:10What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Paril
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-22 in 53
Paril
Wrong
gap of 9 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paril 1867 vs Vavrecka 1830
Paril
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paril 20% vs Vavrecka 60%
Vavrecka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paril 50% vs Vavrecka 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Paril -4 · Vavrecka +1
Paril
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Paril) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavrecka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParil 1.61 / Vavrecka 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Paril)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087561
Paril1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 181 of 330
Up 2–0, closes it91% 82 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it76% 137 of 181
Vavrecka2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 177 of 391
Down 0–1, comes back27% 58 of 213
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParil7wins
AwayVavrecka3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderParil leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParil100%5 of 5
AwayVavrecka60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paril5Vavrecka5n = 10split evenly
S2Paril5Vavrecka5n = 10split evenly
S3Paril6Vavrecka4n = 10Paril took 6 of 10
S4Paril5Vavrecka2n = 7Paril took 5 of 7
S5Paril2Vavrecka1n = 3Paril took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricParilVavreckaP − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.635.2+3.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParilVavreckaBasisWin rate · lifetime502 / 967 vs 1011 / 200951.9%50.3%502 / 967 vs 1011 / 2009Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParilParil 1.61/Vavrecka 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Paril · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vavrecka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 07:00O. Paril—11811113M. Vavrecka—211671
WAug 29 · 12:58O. Paril—81111123M. Vavrecka—1186101
LAug 29 · 12:30O. Paril—8480M. Vavrecka—1111113
WAug 28 · 13:30O. Paril—511711113M. Vavrecka—11911992
WAug 28 · 11:30O. Paril—119117123M. Vavrecka—711911102
LAug 26 · 07:00O. Paril—1011121052M. Vavrecka—1291012113
WAug 23 · 17:29O. Paril—111111113M. Vavrecka—311381
WAug 23 · 15:00O. Paril—11911113M. Vavrecka—711791
WAug 22 · 10:30O. Paril—1111113M. Vavrecka—3390
LAug 18 · 08:30O. Paril—9570M. Vavrecka—1111113
O. Paril10
LSep 7 · 20:00O. Paril2.75761171D. Opanasiuk1.4011118113LSep 7 · 19:30T. Dousek1.80111179113O. Paril1.9159111162LSep 6 · 20:58M. Biolek1.801211113O. Paril1.9110950LSep 6 · 20:00M. Biolek1.7311128113O. Paril2.007101181LSep 6 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.4471113133O. Paril2.6311411111LSep 6 · 18:30O. Paril2.0013790J. Dzida1.731511113WSep 5 · 13:29M. Biolek1.801110661O. Paril1.9171211113WSep 5 · 12:30M. Cabis1.6151113872O. Paril2.201151111113WSep 5 · 11:30O. Paril2.0011116123M. Biolek1.735511101LSep 5 · 10:30T. Zika1.8313811113O. Paril1.831111781
M. Vavrecka10
WSep 7 · 20:30M. Vavrecka2.00101111113T. Dousek1.73129491WSep 7 · 19:00M. Vavrecka2.25119118113D. Opanasiuk1.5781191182WSep 6 · 21:00R. Polasek1.73111312882M. Vavrecka2.006151011113LSep 6 · 20:30M. Vavrecka1.80117761P. Wawrosz1.9191111113LSep 6 · 19:00M. Vavrecka1.91711681T. Dousek1.8011911113WSep 6 · 18:00R. Polasek1.7381111862M. Vavrecka2.00119611113WSep 5 · 09:30M. Vavrecka1.781612113P. Wawrosz1.93141050WSep 5 · 08:00M. Vavrecka1.57135411163M. Navedla2.251111117142WSep 5 · 07:30L. Prikasky1.8391180M. Vavrecka1.831113113LSep 5 · 06:00M. Vavrecka1.7312711852P. Wawrosz2.001011211113
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