TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087565
Played Sep 7Finished
Michal Vavrecka
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012119114119––
Tomas Dousek
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Vavrecka above · Tomas Dousek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Tomas Dousek at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vavrecka 15–20 Tomas Dousek Michal Vavrecka has won 15 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:22What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dousek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-20 in 35
Dousek
Wrong
gap of 5 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vavrecka 1858 vs Dousek 1800
Vavrecka
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavrecka 60% vs Dousek 40%
Vavrecka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavrecka 70% vs Dousek 50%
Vavrecka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavrecka +3 · Dousek +1
Vavrecka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dousek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dousek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavrecka 2.00 / Dousek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dousek)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087565
Vavrecka2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 177 of 391
Down 0–1, comes back27% 58 of 213
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 101
Dousek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 117 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it75% 90 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVavrecka4wins
AwayDousek6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDousek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVavrecka75%3 of 4
AwayDousek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vavrecka4Dousek6n = 10Dousek took 6 of 10
S2Vavrecka4Dousek6n = 10Dousek took 6 of 10
S3Vavrecka5Dousek5n = 10split evenly
S4Vavrecka2Dousek3n = 5Dousek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVavreckaDousekV − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.935.8−1.9per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavreckaDousekBasisWin rate · lifetime1013 / 2009 vs 237 / 44950.4%52.8%1013 / 2009 vs 237 / 449Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousekVavrecka 2.00/Dousek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vavrecka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 19:00M. Vavrecka—711681T. Dousek—11911113
WAug 31 · 09:00M. Vavrecka—17911113T. Dousek—1511741
WAug 31 · 06:00M. Vavrecka—1111113T. Dousek—7780
LAug 26 · 13:30M. Vavrecka—9640T. Dousek—1111113
WAug 26 · 11:00M. Vavrecka—1011119113T. Dousek—12841172
LAug 25 · 07:30M. Vavrecka—7211131T. Dousek—11116153
WAug 24 · 12:30M. Vavrecka—1111113T. Dousek—7790
LAug 22 · 11:00M. Vavrecka—65100T. Dousek—1111123
LAug 13 · 13:30M. Vavrecka—11951192T. Dousek—711119113
LAug 13 · 10:30M. Vavrecka—6890T. Dousek—1111113
M. Vavrecka10
WSep 7 · 19:00M. Vavrecka2.25119118113D. Opanasiuk1.5781191182WSep 7 · 18:00O. Paril1.61116971M. Vavrecka2.2051111113WSep 6 · 21:00R. Polasek1.73111312882M. Vavrecka2.006151011113LSep 6 · 20:30M. Vavrecka1.80117761P. Wawrosz1.9191111113LSep 6 · 19:00M. Vavrecka1.91711681T. Dousek1.8011911113WSep 6 · 18:00R. Polasek1.7381111862M. Vavrecka2.00119611113WSep 5 · 09:30M. Vavrecka1.781612113P. Wawrosz1.93141050WSep 5 · 08:00M. Vavrecka1.57135411163M. Navedla2.251111117142WSep 5 · 07:30L. Prikasky1.8391180M. Vavrecka1.831113113LSep 5 · 06:00M. Vavrecka1.7312711852P. Wawrosz2.001011211113
T. Dousek10
LSep 7 · 21:00T. Dousek1.7310990O. Paril2.001211113WSep 7 · 19:30T. Dousek1.80111179113O. Paril1.9159111162LSep 7 · 18:30D. Opanasiuk1.8010111011113T. Dousek1.9112612892LSep 7 · 13:30M. Navedla2.1071111113T. Dousek1.67116841WSep 7 · 12:00T. Dousek1.6171111113P. Wawrosz2.20117881LSep 7 · 11:30M. Navedla2.501111123T. Dousek1.5098100WSep 7 · 10:00T. Dousek1.611111113J. Pilch2.209980LSep 6 · 21:30T. Dousek1.46127921P. Wawrosz2.36101111113WSep 6 · 20:00R. Polasek1.917811141T. Dousek1.8011117163WSep 6 · 19:00M. Vavrecka1.91711681T. Dousek1.8011911113
Upcoming Matches
M. Vavrecka
T. Dousek
Nothing scheduled
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