TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13094922
Played Sep 7Finished
Tomas Dousek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012911911––––
Ondrej Paril
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:56 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Dousek above · Ondrej Paril below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 62 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Tomas Dousek at 61.9%
62 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Dousek 21–17 Ondrej Paril Ondrej Paril has won 17 of their 38 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Dousek beat Paril 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:56What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dousek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-17 in 38
Dousek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dousek 1791 vs Paril 1827
Paril
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dousek 40% vs Paril 0%
Dousek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousek 50% vs Paril 30%
Dousek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousek -1 · Paril -5
Paril
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Dousek) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Paril form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousek 1.73 / Paril 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Dousek)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13094922
Dousek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 117 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it75% 90 of 120
Paril2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 130 of 275
Down 0–1, comes back25% 38 of 150
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDousek4wins
AwayParil6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderParil leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDousek66.7%4 of 6
AwayParil100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dousek6Paril4n = 10Dousek took 6 of 10
S2Dousek5Paril5n = 10split evenly
S3Dousek4Paril6n = 10Paril took 6 of 10
S4Dousek3Paril4n = 7Paril took 4 of 7
S5Dousek2Paril3n = 5Paril took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDousekParilD − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.441.0+0.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousekParilBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 450 vs 501 / 96652.7%51.9%237 / 450 vs 501 / 966Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousekDousek 1.73/Paril 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Paril won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 10:30T. Dousek—811101182O. Paril—116124113
LAug 26 · 21:30T. Dousek—8121181O. Paril—11148113
WAug 26 · 19:00T. Dousek—1111113O. Paril—5890
LAug 22 · 13:30T. Dousek—781131O. Paril—11119113
WAug 22 · 12:30T. Dousek—1111113O. Paril—9590
WAug 21 · 21:28T. Dousek—11111511113O. Paril—85171332
LAug 21 · 18:00T. Dousek—137917112O. Paril—11111115133
LAug 19 · 10:00T. Dousek—8790O. Paril—1111113
LAug 16 · 12:00T. Dousek—115101182O. Paril—711129113
WAug 8 · 16:30T. Dousek—111195113O. Paril—59111192
T. Dousek10
LSep 7 · 20:30M. Vavrecka2.00101111113T. Dousek1.73129491WSep 7 · 19:30T. Dousek1.80111179113O. Paril1.9159111162LSep 7 · 18:30D. Opanasiuk1.8010111011113T. Dousek1.9112612892LSep 7 · 13:30M. Navedla2.1071111113T. Dousek1.67116841WSep 7 · 12:00T. Dousek1.6171111113P. Wawrosz2.20117881LSep 7 · 11:30M. Navedla2.501111123T. Dousek1.5098100WSep 7 · 10:00T. Dousek1.611111113J. Pilch2.209980LSep 6 · 21:30T. Dousek1.46127921P. Wawrosz2.36101111113WSep 6 · 20:00R. Polasek1.917811141T. Dousek1.8011117163WSep 6 · 19:00M. Vavrecka1.91711681T. Dousek1.8011911113
O. Paril10
LSep 7 · 20:00O. Paril2.75761171D. Opanasiuk1.4011118113LSep 7 · 19:30T. Dousek1.80111179113O. Paril1.9159111162LSep 7 · 18:00O. Paril1.61116971M. Vavrecka2.2051111113LSep 6 · 20:58M. Biolek1.801211113O. Paril1.9110950LSep 6 · 20:00M. Biolek1.7311128113O. Paril2.007101181LSep 6 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.4471113133O. Paril2.6311411111LSep 6 · 18:30O. Paril2.0013790J. Dzida1.731511113WSep 5 · 13:29M. Biolek1.801110661O. Paril1.9171211113WSep 5 · 12:30M. Cabis1.6151113872O. Paril2.201151111113WSep 5 · 11:30O. Paril2.0011116123M. Biolek1.735511101
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