TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13091748
Played Sep 8Finished
Jakub Pilch
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811115711119115
Matyas Navedla
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:08 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeJakub Pilch to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Pilch above · Matyas Navedla below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 89 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Jakub Pilch at 59.3%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Pilch 25–17 Matyas Navedla Matyas Navedla has won 17 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:08What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pilch
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-17 in 42
Pilch
Correct
gap of 8 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pilch 1791 vs Navedla 1768
Pilch
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pilch 40% vs Navedla 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pilch 40% vs Navedla 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pilch -3 · Navedla -2
Pilch
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pilch) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Navedla form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPilch 1.80 / Navedla 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pilch)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13091748
Pilch1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 58 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it70% 40 of 57
Navedla1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 139 of 326
Down 0–1, comes back25% 41 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePilch6wins
AwayNavedla4wins
8 of 10 to a deciderPilch leads 6–4, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePilch71.4%5 of 7
AwayNavedla66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pilch7Navedla3n = 10Pilch took 7 of 10
S2Pilch1Navedla9n = 10Navedla took 9 of 10
S3Pilch6Navedla4n = 10Pilch took 6 of 10
S4Pilch4Navedla6n = 10Navedla took 6 of 10
S5Pilch6Navedla2n = 8Pilch took 6 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home660%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPilchNavedlaP − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.144.1−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPilchNavedlaBasisWin rate · lifetime217 / 430 vs 359 / 75350.5%47.7%217 / 430 vs 359 / 753Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PilchPilch 1.80/Navedla 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pilch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pilch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 12:30J. Pilch—1161110123M. Navedla—611512102
LJul 15 · 17:13J. Pilch—15712662M. Navedla—13111011113
WJul 15 · 14:30J. Pilch—119812113M. Navedla—511111072
LJul 15 · 11:30J. Pilch—671151M. Navedla—11115113
WJul 14 · 12:00J. Pilch—117117113M. Navedla—51151192
LJul 12 · 09:30J. Pilch—14591132M. Navedla—1211118113
WJul 12 · 07:00J. Pilch—671111113M. Navedla—11116532
WJul 11 · 17:30J. Pilch—111177113M. Navedla—78111182
LJul 11 · 16:30J. Pilch—531181M. Navedla—11115113
WJul 11 · 10:30J. Pilch—116511133M. Navedla—411119112
J. Pilch10
LSep 8 · 08:58J. Pilch1.8091190M. Navedla1.911113113LSep 8 · 07:00J. Pilch1.73551171P. Wawrosz2.0011116113LSep 8 · 06:00R. Polasek1.57111175113J. Pilch2.2576111132LSep 7 · 13:07J. Pilch1.72117271P. Wawrosz2.0041111113WSep 7 · 12:30J. Pilch1.731161110123M. Navedla2.00611512102WSep 7 · 11:00J. Pilch1.8371113113P. Wawrosz1.831171161LSep 7 · 10:00T. Dousek1.611111113J. Pilch2.209980LAug 2 · 17:30M. Kratochvil2.2014411113J. Pilch1.611211621LAug 2 · 16:30M. Kratochvil2.00212411113J. Pilch1.73111011672WAug 2 · 15:30J. Pilch2.251111711113J. Plachta1.5775111362
M. Navedla10
WSep 8 · 08:58J. Pilch1.8091190M. Navedla1.911113113LSep 8 · 07:30M. Navedla2.20101161162R. Polasek1.61126119113LSep 8 · 06:30P. Wawrosz1.53111111113M. Navedla2.38813481WSep 7 · 13:30M. Navedla2.1071111113T. Dousek1.67116841LSep 7 · 12:30J. Pilch1.731161110123M. Navedla2.00611512102WSep 7 · 11:30M. Navedla2.501111123T. Dousek1.5098100WSep 7 · 10:30P. Wawrosz1.738550M. Navedla2.001111113WSep 5 · 09:00M. Navedla1.8311813113L. Prikasky1.836111171LSep 5 · 08:00M. Vavrecka1.57135411163M. Navedla2.251111117142LSep 5 · 07:00P. Wawrosz1.73881111113M. Navedla2.0011117692
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