TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13103135
Played Sep 9Finished
Ondrej Paril
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181191012118––
Radovan Polasek
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Paril to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Paril above · Radovan Polasek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 80 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Ondrej Paril at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Paril 44–37 Radovan Polasek Radovan Polasek has won 37 of their 81 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Paril beat Polasek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:06What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Paril
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-37 in 81
Paril
Correct
gap of 7 in 81, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paril 1871 vs Polasek 1851
Paril
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paril 80% vs Polasek 60%
Paril
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paril 40% vs Polasek 60%
Polasek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Paril +4 · Polasek +1
Paril
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Paril)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Paril form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParil 1.80 / Polasek 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Paril)+2.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13103135
Paril1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 181 of 331
Up 2–0, closes it91% 82 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it75% 137 of 182
Polasek1.90
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog51% won 175 of 341
Down 0–1, comes back30% 51 of 169
Down 0–2, comes back11% 9 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParil7wins
AwayPolasek3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderParil leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParil75%3 of 4
AwayPolasek33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paril4Polasek6n = 10Polasek took 6 of 10
S2Paril6Polasek4n = 10Paril took 6 of 10
S3Paril6Polasek4n = 10Paril took 6 of 10
S4Paril4Polasek5n = 9Polasek took 5 of 9
S5Paril4Polasek1n = 5Paril took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricParilPolasekParil − PolasekBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.541.7−1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParilPolasekBasisWin rate · lifetime502 / 966 vs 444 / 87152%51%502 / 966 vs 444 / 871Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParilParil 1.80/Polasek 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Paril · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Paril won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 07:00O. Paril—711112113R. Polasek—11781192
WSep 4 · 10:30O. Paril—1111118113R. Polasek—13991172
LSep 4 · 09:30O. Paril—7560R. Polasek—1111113
WSep 4 · 07:30O. Paril—11911113R. Polasek—411861
LAug 30 · 09:30O. Paril—111111362R. Polasek—591311113
WAug 30 · 06:30O. Paril—1011711113R. Polasek—12711982
WAug 28 · 10:00O. Paril—12511113R. Polasek—1011971
LAug 26 · 06:30O. Paril—411391R. Polasek—11911113
WAug 25 · 13:00O. Paril—81111113R. Polasek—116981
WAug 25 · 10:30O. Paril—139117123R. Polasek—1111811102
O. Paril10
WSep 9 · 08:30O. Paril1.73116128123R. Revay2.007111011102WSep 9 · 07:00O. Paril1.80711112113R. Polasek1.9111781192WSep 9 · 06:00M. Vavrecka2.20731491O. Paril1.61111112113WSep 7 · 21:00T. Dousek1.7310990O. Paril2.001211113LSep 7 · 20:00O. Paril2.75761171D. Opanasiuk1.4011118113LSep 7 · 19:30T. Dousek1.80111179113O. Paril1.9159111162LSep 7 · 18:00O. Paril1.61116971M. Vavrecka2.2051111113LSep 6 · 20:58M. Biolek1.801211113O. Paril1.9110950LSep 6 · 20:00M. Biolek1.7311128113O. Paril2.007101181LSep 6 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.4471113133O. Paril2.6311411111
R. Polasek10
WSep 9 · 08:00M. Vavrecka2.0011812101R. Polasek1.73131110123LSep 9 · 07:00O. Paril1.80711112113R. Polasek1.9111781192WSep 9 · 06:30R. Polasek1.8311117123R. Revay1.838711101WSep 8 · 09:29P. Wawrosz1.73711661R. Polasek2.0011411113LSep 8 · 08:00R. Polasek1.8312881192P. Wawrosz1.831011116113WSep 8 · 07:30M. Navedla2.20101161162R. Polasek1.61126119113WSep 8 · 06:00R. Polasek1.57111175113J. Pilch2.2576111132LSep 6 · 21:00R. Polasek1.73111312882M. Vavrecka2.006151011113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Polasek1.917811141T. Dousek1.8011117163WSep 6 · 19:30P. Wawrosz1.8021250R. Polasek1.911114113
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