TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13097898
Played Sep 9Finished
Michal Vavrecka
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7113111412911––
Ondrej Paril
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:19 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeMichal Vavrecka to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Vavrecka above · Ondrej Paril below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 78 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Michal Vavrecka at 57.4%
78 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vavrecka 23–32 Ondrej Paril Michal Vavrecka has won 23 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:19What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Paril
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-32 in 55
Paril
Correct
gap of 9 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vavrecka 1857 vs Paril 1852
Vavrecka
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavrecka 80% vs Paril 20%
Vavrecka
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavrecka 70% vs Paril 30%
Vavrecka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavrecka -1 · Paril +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Paril) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Paril form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavrecka 2.20 / Paril 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Paril)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13097898
Vavrecka2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 175 of 386
Down 0–1, comes back28% 59 of 214
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 101
Paril1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 181 of 331
Up 2–0, closes it91% 82 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it75% 137 of 182
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVavrecka3wins
AwayParil7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderParil leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVavrecka50%2 of 4
AwayParil83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vavrecka4Paril6n = 10Paril took 6 of 10
S2Vavrecka5Paril5n = 10split evenly
S3Vavrecka5Paril5n = 10split evenly
S4Vavrecka3Paril6n = 9Paril took 6 of 9
S5Vavrecka1Paril2n = 3Paril took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVavreckaParilV − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.541.0−3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavreckaParilBasisWin rate · lifetime1013 / 2006 vs 500 / 96450.5%51.9%1013 / 2006 vs 500 / 964Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParilVavrecka 2.20/Paril 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Paril · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Paril won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 06:00M. Vavrecka—731491O. Paril—111112113
WSep 7 · 18:00M. Vavrecka—51111113O. Paril—116971
LAug 30 · 07:00M. Vavrecka—211671O. Paril—11811113
LAug 29 · 12:58M. Vavrecka—1186101O. Paril—81111123
WAug 29 · 12:30M. Vavrecka—1111113O. Paril—8480
LAug 28 · 13:30M. Vavrecka—11911992O. Paril—511711113
LAug 28 · 11:30M. Vavrecka—711911102O. Paril—119117123
WAug 26 · 07:00M. Vavrecka—1291012113O. Paril—1011121052
LAug 23 · 17:29M. Vavrecka—311381O. Paril—111111113
LAug 23 · 15:00M. Vavrecka—711791O. Paril—11911113
M. Vavrecka10
LSep 7 · 21:30M. Vavrecka2.356760D. Opanasiuk1.521111113WSep 7 · 20:30M. Vavrecka2.00101111113T. Dousek1.73129491WSep 7 · 19:00M. Vavrecka2.25119118113D. Opanasiuk1.5781191182WSep 7 · 18:00O. Paril1.61116971M. Vavrecka2.2051111113WSep 6 · 21:00R. Polasek1.73111312882M. Vavrecka2.006151011113LSep 6 · 20:30M. Vavrecka1.80117761P. Wawrosz1.9191111113LSep 6 · 19:00M. Vavrecka1.91711681T. Dousek1.8011911113WSep 6 · 18:00R. Polasek1.7381111862M. Vavrecka2.00119611113WSep 5 · 09:30M. Vavrecka1.781612113P. Wawrosz1.93141050WSep 5 · 08:00M. Vavrecka1.57135411163M. Navedla2.251111117142
O. Paril10
WSep 7 · 21:00T. Dousek1.7310990O. Paril2.001211113LSep 7 · 20:00O. Paril2.75761171D. Opanasiuk1.4011118113LSep 7 · 19:30T. Dousek1.80111179113O. Paril1.9159111162LSep 7 · 18:00O. Paril1.61116971M. Vavrecka2.2051111113LSep 6 · 20:58M. Biolek1.801211113O. Paril1.9110950LSep 6 · 20:00M. Biolek1.7311128113O. Paril2.007101181LSep 6 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.4471113133O. Paril2.6311411111LSep 6 · 18:30O. Paril2.0013790J. Dzida1.731511113WSep 5 · 13:29M. Biolek1.801110661O. Paril1.9171211113WSep 5 · 12:30M. Cabis1.6151113872O. Paril2.201151111113
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