TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13094921
Played Sep 7Finished
Michal Vavrecka
Home
2.35
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611711611––––
Dmytro Opanasiuk
Away
1.52
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:56 and never touched — 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeMichal Vavrecka to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Vavrecka above · Dmytro Opanasiuk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 52 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Michal Vavrecka at 57.2%
52 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vavrecka 3–2 Dmytro Opanasiuk Dmytro Opanasiuk has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Vavrecka beat Opanasiuk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:56What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (61%)
Opanasiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vavrecka 1870 vs Opanasiuk 1967
Opanasiuk
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavrecka 80% vs Opanasiuk 60%
Vavrecka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavrecka 80% vs Opanasiuk 60%
Vavrecka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavrecka +4 · Opanasiuk +1
Vavrecka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Opanasiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavrecka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavrecka 2.35 / Opanasiuk 1.52
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Opanasiuk)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13094921
Vavrecka2.35
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 177 of 391
Down 0–1, comes back27% 58 of 213
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 101
Opanasiuk1.52
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite53% won 83 of 157
Up 2–0, closes it89% 39 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it69% 51 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVavrecka3wins
AwayOpanasiuk2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderVavrecka leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVavreckan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOpanasiuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vavrecka2Opanasiuk3n = 5Opanasiuk took 3 of 5
S2Vavrecka1Opanasiuk4n = 5Opanasiuk took 4 of 5
S3Vavrecka4Opanasiuk1n = 5Vavrecka took 4 of 5
S4Vavrecka2Opanasiuk2n = 4split evenly
S5Vavrecka2Opanasiuk1n = 3Vavrecka took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricVavreckaOpanasiukV − OBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match44.040.8+3.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavreckaOpanasiukBasisWin rate · lifetime1013 / 2009 vs 139 / 25950.4%53.7%1013 / 2009 vs 139 / 259Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OpanasiukVavrecka 2.35/Opanasiuk 1.52
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.1%
Opanasiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Opanasiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 7 · 19:00M. Vavrecka—119118113D. Opanasiuk—81191182
LJun 22 · 11:30M. Vavrecka—124111192D. Opanasiuk—141197113
WMay 17 · 20:59M. Vavrecka—71111113D. Opanasiuk—119671
LMay 17 · 20:30M. Vavrecka—1011100D. Opanasiuk—1213123
WApr 29 · 18:30M. Vavrecka—1110119113D. Opanasiuk—51241132
M. Vavrecka10
WSep 7 · 20:30M. Vavrecka2.00101111113T. Dousek1.73129491WSep 7 · 19:00M. Vavrecka2.25119118113D. Opanasiuk1.5781191182WSep 7 · 18:00O. Paril1.61116971M. Vavrecka2.2051111113WSep 6 · 21:00R. Polasek1.73111312882M. Vavrecka2.006151011113LSep 6 · 20:30M. Vavrecka1.80117761P. Wawrosz1.9191111113LSep 6 · 19:00M. Vavrecka1.91711681T. Dousek1.8011911113WSep 6 · 18:00R. Polasek1.7381111862M. Vavrecka2.00119611113WSep 5 · 09:30M. Vavrecka1.781612113P. Wawrosz1.93141050WSep 5 · 08:00M. Vavrecka1.57135411163M. Navedla2.251111117142WSep 5 · 07:30L. Prikasky1.8391180M. Vavrecka1.831113113
D. Opanasiuk10
WSep 7 · 20:00O. Paril2.75761171D. Opanasiuk1.4011118113LSep 7 · 19:00M. Vavrecka2.25119118113D. Opanasiuk1.5781191182WSep 7 · 18:30D. Opanasiuk1.8010111011113T. Dousek1.9112612892LSep 6 · 21:30D. Opanasiuk1.6411621582J. Dzida2.019111911113WSep 6 · 20:30D. Opanasiuk1.8081212113J. Dzida1.9111101081WSep 6 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.4471113133O. Paril2.6311411111WSep 6 · 18:00M. Biolek1.8371271122D. Opanasiuk1.831110115113WAug 24 · 20:58M. Biolek1.80111211101D. Opanasiuk1.9131413123LAug 24 · 20:00M. Biolek1.831111113D. Opanasiuk1.839480LAug 24 · 19:00O. Paril2.7511611173D. Opanasiuk1.408116151
Upcoming Matches
M. Vavrecka
D. Opanasiuk
Nothing scheduled
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