TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104264
Played Sep 10Finished
Matyas Navedla
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711411611––––
Jakub Pilch
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatyas Navedla to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatyas Navedla above · Jakub Pilch below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 50 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Matyas Navedla at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Navedla 18–26 Jakub Pilch Matyas Navedla has won 18 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:17What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pilch
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-26 in 44
Pilch
Correct
gap of 8 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Navedla 1809 vs Pilch 1785
Navedla
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Navedla 80% vs Pilch 20%
Navedla
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Navedla 60% vs Pilch 30%
Navedla
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Navedla +4 · Pilch -1
Navedla
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pilch) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pilch form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNavedla 2.00 / Pilch 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pilch)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104264
Navedla2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 140 of 327
Down 0–1, comes back25% 41 of 164
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 73
Pilch1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 54 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it69% 36 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNavedla4wins
AwayPilch6wins
8 of 10 to a deciderPilch leads 6–4, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNavedla50%2 of 4
AwayPilch66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Navedla4Pilch6n = 10Pilch took 6 of 10
S2Navedla8Pilch2n = 10Navedla took 8 of 10
S3Navedla5Pilch5n = 10split evenly
S4Navedla5Pilch4n = 9Navedla took 5 of 9
S5Navedla2Pilch6n = 8Pilch took 6 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNavedlaPilchN − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.343.5−0.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNavedlaPilchBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 758 vs 218 / 43347.9%50.4%363 / 758 vs 218 / 433Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PilchNavedla 2.00/Pilch 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Pilch · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pilch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 08:58M. Navedla—1113113J. Pilch—91190
LSep 8 · 08:30M. Navedla—11511952J. Pilch—811711113
LSep 7 · 12:30M. Navedla—611512102J. Pilch—1161110123
WJul 15 · 17:13M. Navedla—13111011113J. Pilch—15712662
LJul 15 · 14:30M. Navedla—511111072J. Pilch—119812113
WJul 15 · 11:30M. Navedla—11115113J. Pilch—671151
LJul 14 · 12:00M. Navedla—51151192J. Pilch—117117113
WJul 12 · 09:30M. Navedla—1211118113J. Pilch—14591132
LJul 12 · 07:00M. Navedla—11116532J. Pilch—671111113
LJul 11 · 17:30M. Navedla—78111182J. Pilch—111177113
M. Navedla10
LSep 10 · 11:00O. Paril1.44811193123M. Navedla2.631141711102WSep 10 · 09:00M. Navedla2.1091111113M. Vavrecka1.67115451LSep 10 · 08:30M. Navedla2.0081090J. Pilch1.731112113WSep 10 · 07:00M. Navedla1.83611128113R. Revay1.83118101182WSep 10 · 06:00M. Vavrecka1.578111131M. Navedla2.2511133113WSep 8 · 08:58J. Pilch1.8091190M. Navedla1.911113113LSep 8 · 08:30J. Pilch1.80811711113M. Navedla1.9111511952LSep 8 · 07:30M. Navedla2.20101161162R. Polasek1.61126119113LSep 8 · 06:30P. Wawrosz1.53111111113M. Navedla2.38813481WSep 7 · 13:30M. Navedla2.1071111113T. Dousek1.67116841
J. Pilch10
LSep 10 · 11:30J. Pilch2.251151381R. Polasek1.5741115113LSep 10 · 09:30J. Pilch2.384860R. Revay1.531111113WSep 10 · 08:30M. Navedla2.0081090J. Pilch1.731112113WSep 10 · 07:30J. Pilch2.001361111113M. Vavrecka1.73111181342LSep 10 · 06:30R. Revay1.501061111113J. Pilch2.5012115942LSep 8 · 08:58J. Pilch1.8091190M. Navedla1.911113113WSep 8 · 08:30J. Pilch1.80811711113M. Navedla1.9111511952LSep 8 · 07:00J. Pilch1.73551171P. Wawrosz2.0011116113LSep 8 · 06:00R. Polasek1.57111175113J. Pilch2.2576111132LSep 7 · 13:07J. Pilch1.72117271P. Wawrosz2.0041111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Navedla
Nothing scheduled
J. Pilch
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