TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104686
Played Sep 10Finished
Jakub Pilch
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1145111315811––
Radovan Polasek
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:39 and never touched — 62.2% is still 62.2%
Graded at full timeRadovan Polasek to win
62.2%
62.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Pilch above · Radovan Polasek below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 78 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Radovan Polasek at 62.2%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Pilch 9–14 Radovan Polasek Jakub Pilch has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:39What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Polasek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-14 in 23
Polasek
Correct
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pilch 1772 vs Polasek 1848
Polasek
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pilch 20% vs Polasek 40%
Polasek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pilch 30% vs Polasek 50%
Polasek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pilch -1 · Polasek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Polasek) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polasek form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPilch 2.25 / Polasek 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Polasek)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104686
Pilch2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 33 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back30% 11 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Polasek1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 197 of 377
Up 2–0, closes it85% 95 of 112
Up 1–0, closes it71% 136 of 191
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePilch3wins
AwayPolasek7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPolasek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePilch75%3 of 4
AwayPolasek100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pilch4Polasek6n = 10Polasek took 6 of 10
S2Pilch2Polasek8n = 10Polasek took 8 of 10
S3Pilch5Polasek5n = 10split evenly
S4Pilch3Polasek4n = 7Polasek took 4 of 7
S5Pilch2Polasek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPilchPolasekPilch − PolasekBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.640.5−4.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPilchPolasekBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 433 vs 446 / 87650.4%50.9%218 / 433 vs 446 / 876Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolasekPilch 2.25/Polasek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Polasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Polasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 06:00J. Pilch—76111132R. Polasek—111175113
LAug 1 · 14:30J. Pilch—7111241R. Polasek—11414113
WAug 1 · 10:30J. Pilch—1111113R. Polasek—8850
LJul 21 · 12:30J. Pilch—108121182R. Polasek—1211107113
LJul 1 · 11:00J. Pilch—117461R. Polasek—31111113
LMay 1 · 10:30J. Pilch—1041151R. Polasek—12119113
LApr 30 · 17:00J. Pilch—6350R. Polasek—1111113
LApr 30 · 16:00J. Pilch—610100R. Polasek—1112123
WApr 23 · 12:00J. Pilch—1351110113R. Polasek—111181282
WApr 23 · 08:00J. Pilch—1191211113R. Polasek—91114892
J. Pilch10
WSep 10 · 10:30M. Navedla2.007460J. Pilch1.731111113LSep 10 · 09:30J. Pilch2.384860R. Revay1.531111113WSep 10 · 08:30M. Navedla2.0081090J. Pilch1.731112113WSep 10 · 07:30J. Pilch2.001361111113M. Vavrecka1.73111181342LSep 10 · 06:30R. Revay1.501061111113J. Pilch2.5012115942LSep 8 · 08:58J. Pilch1.8091190M. Navedla1.911113113WSep 8 · 08:30J. Pilch1.80811711113M. Navedla1.9111511952LSep 8 · 07:00J. Pilch1.73551171P. Wawrosz2.0011116113LSep 8 · 06:00R. Polasek1.57111175113J. Pilch2.2576111132LSep 7 · 13:07J. Pilch1.72117271P. Wawrosz2.0041111113
R. Polasek10
LSep 10 · 12:00R. Polasek1.61101340M. Navedla2.201215113WSep 10 · 10:00R. Polasek1.8311118113O. Paril1.83981191LSep 9 · 17:30M. Grundel2.10117115113R. Polasek1.6571151162WSep 9 · 16:30L. Prikasky2.0391350R. Polasek1.621115113LSep 9 · 15:30R. Polasek1.75711781M. Skotnica1.9511811113WSep 9 · 14:30M. Grundel2.0854111122R. Polasek1.59111173113LSep 9 · 09:30O. Paril1.80111110113R. Polasek1.90891281WSep 9 · 08:00M. Vavrecka2.0011812101R. Polasek1.73131110123LSep 9 · 07:00O. Paril1.80711112113R. Polasek1.9111781192WSep 8 · 06:00R. Polasek1.57111175113J. Pilch2.2576111132
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