TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13103003
Played Sep 9Finished
Matej Grundel
Home
2.08
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511411117113211
Radovan Polasek
Away
1.59
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadovan Polasek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Grundel above · Radovan Polasek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 76 set 5, 2-11 — our read held Radovan Polasek at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Matej Grundel 5–7 Radovan Polasek Matej Grundel has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:28What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.59 (57%)
Polasek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Polasek
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grundel 1845 vs Polasek 1831
Grundel
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grundel 60% vs Polasek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grundel 70% vs Polasek 50%
Grundel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grundel -2 · Polasek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Polasek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grundel form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrundel 2.08 / Polasek 1.59
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Polasek)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13103003
Grundel2.08
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 31 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back28% 9 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Polasek1.59
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite52% won 193 of 372
Up 2–0, closes it84% 91 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it71% 132 of 187
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrundel4wins
AwayPolasek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPolasek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrundel40%2 of 5
AwayPolasek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grundel5Polasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Grundel6Polasek4n = 10Grundel took 6 of 10
S3Grundel2Polasek8n = 10Polasek took 8 of 10
S4Grundel2Polasek5n = 7Polasek took 5 of 7
S5Grundel2Polasek1n = 3Grundel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrundelPolasekG − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.439.0−2.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrundelPolasekBasisWin rate · lifetime162 / 308 vs 444 / 87252.6%50.9%162 / 308 vs 444 / 872Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolasekGrundel 2.08/Polasek 1.59
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.1%
Polasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Polasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 7 · 17:28M. Grundel—119781R. Polasek—91111113
WAug 7 · 15:30M. Grundel—131198113R. Polasek—115111182
LMay 29 · 16:30M. Grundel—1013861R. Polasek—121111113
LMay 23 · 06:00M. Grundel—2980R. Polasek—1111113
LMay 17 · 15:00M. Grundel—10890R. Polasek—1211113
LMay 17 · 13:30M. Grundel—125251R. Polasek—101111113
WMay 17 · 12:00M. Grundel—91111113R. Polasek—118691
WMay 13 · 15:00M. Grundel—1311113R. Polasek—11680
WMay 8 · 13:30M. Grundel—911811113R. Polasek—11711972
LMay 8 · 12:30M. Grundel—11117682R. Polasek—551111113
M. Grundel10
LSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191LSep 3 · 16:00M. Grundel2.1012871192M. Skotnica1.671011119113WSep 3 · 15:30R. Urbaniec3.253660M. Grundel1.331111113WSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WAug 27 · 17:28M. Grundel1.831111109113L. Prikasky1.8382121192LAug 27 · 16:00L. Prikasky1.83119811113M. Grundel1.8361111882WAug 27 · 15:00D. Tomica2.257450M. Grundel1.571111113WAug 27 · 14:30M. Grundel2.001111113L. Velebil1.737750WAug 26 · 17:03M. Grundel1.771011812113L. Prikasky1.95127111072WAug 26 · 16:59M. Grundel1.911011812113P. Libor1.80127111072
R. Polasek10
LSep 9 · 09:30O. Paril1.80111110113R. Polasek1.90891281WSep 9 · 08:00M. Vavrecka2.0011812101R. Polasek1.73131110123LSep 9 · 07:00O. Paril1.80711112113R. Polasek1.9111781192WSep 9 · 06:30R. Polasek1.8311117123R. Revay1.838711101WSep 8 · 09:29P. Wawrosz1.73711661R. Polasek2.0011411113LSep 8 · 08:00R. Polasek1.8312881192P. Wawrosz1.831011116113WSep 8 · 07:30M. Navedla2.20101161162R. Polasek1.61126119113WSep 8 · 06:00R. Polasek1.57111175113J. Pilch2.2576111132LSep 6 · 21:00R. Polasek1.73111312882M. Vavrecka2.006151011113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Polasek1.917811141T. Dousek1.8011117163
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