TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13105284
Played Sep 9Finished
Matej Grundel
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117711115511116
Radovan Polasek
Away
1.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:03 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeRadovan Polasek to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatej Grundel above · Radovan Polasek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 85 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Radovan Polasek at 57.4%
85 points played in total.
H2H Matej Grundel 5–8 Radovan Polasek Matej Grundel has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:03What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Polasek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Polasek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grundel 1863 vs Polasek 1848
Grundel
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grundel 60% vs Polasek 40%
Grundel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grundel 70% vs Polasek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grundel +2 · Polasek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Polasek) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polasek form (40%) is below what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrundel 2.10 / Polasek 1.65
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Polasek)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13105284
Grundel2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 31 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back28% 9 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Polasek1.65
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite52% won 193 of 372
Up 2–0, closes it84% 91 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it71% 132 of 187
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrundel4wins
AwayPolasek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPolasek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrundel50%2 of 4
AwayPolasek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grundel4Polasek6n = 10Polasek took 6 of 10
S2Grundel5Polasek5n = 10split evenly
S3Grundel3Polasek7n = 10Polasek took 7 of 10
S4Grundel3Polasek4n = 7Polasek took 4 of 7
S5Grundel2Polasek1n = 3Grundel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrundelPolasekG − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.439.0−3.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrundelPolasekBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 311 vs 446 / 87552.7%51%164 / 311 vs 446 / 875Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolasekGrundel 2.10/Polasek 1.65
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.4%
Polasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Grundel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 14:30M. Grundel—54111122R. Polasek—111173113
LAug 7 · 17:28M. Grundel—119781R. Polasek—91111113
WAug 7 · 15:30M. Grundel—131198113R. Polasek—115111182
LMay 29 · 16:30M. Grundel—1013861R. Polasek—121111113
LMay 23 · 06:00M. Grundel—2980R. Polasek—1111113
LMay 17 · 15:00M. Grundel—10890R. Polasek—1211113
LMay 17 · 13:30M. Grundel—125251R. Polasek—101111113
WMay 17 · 12:00M. Grundel—91111113R. Polasek—118691
WMay 13 · 15:00M. Grundel—1311113R. Polasek—11680
WMay 8 · 13:30M. Grundel—911811113R. Polasek—11711972
M. Grundel10
WSep 9 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.73431171M. Grundel2.0011113113WSep 9 · 15:00L. Prikasky1.83541381M. Grundel1.83111111113LSep 9 · 14:30M. Grundel2.0854111122R. Polasek1.59111173113LSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191LSep 3 · 16:00M. Grundel2.1012871192M. Skotnica1.671011119113WSep 3 · 15:30R. Urbaniec3.253660M. Grundel1.331111113WSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WAug 27 · 17:28M. Grundel1.831111109113L. Prikasky1.8382121192LAug 27 · 16:00L. Prikasky1.83119811113M. Grundel1.8361111882WAug 27 · 15:00D. Tomica2.257450M. Grundel1.571111113
R. Polasek10
WSep 9 · 16:30L. Prikasky2.0391350R. Polasek1.621115113LSep 9 · 15:30R. Polasek1.75711781M. Skotnica1.9511811113WSep 9 · 14:30M. Grundel2.0854111122R. Polasek1.59111173113LSep 9 · 09:30O. Paril1.80111110113R. Polasek1.90891281WSep 9 · 08:00M. Vavrecka2.0011812101R. Polasek1.73131110123LSep 9 · 07:00O. Paril1.80711112113R. Polasek1.9111781192WSep 9 · 06:30R. Polasek1.8311117123R. Revay1.838711101WSep 8 · 09:29P. Wawrosz1.73711661R. Polasek2.0011411113LSep 8 · 08:00R. Polasek1.8312881192P. Wawrosz1.831011116113WSep 8 · 07:30M. Navedla2.20101161162R. Polasek1.61126119113
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