TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104116
Played Sep 9Finished
Radovan Polasek
Home
1.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711118711811––
Martin Skotnica
Away
1.95
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Skotnica to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadovan Polasek above · Martin Skotnica below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 74 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Martin Skotnica at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Polasek 7–5 Martin Skotnica Martin Skotnica has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:07What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Polasek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Polasek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polasek 1842 vs Skotnica 1866
Skotnica
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polasek 60% vs Skotnica 80%
Skotnica
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polasek 60% vs Skotnica 90%
Skotnica
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polasek +1 · Skotnica +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Polasek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skotnica form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolasek 1.75 / Skotnica 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Polasek)+1.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104116
Polasek1.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite52% won 193 of 372
Up 2–0, closes it84% 91 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it71% 132 of 187
Skotnica1.95
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 8 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back27% 3 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolasek6wins
AwaySkotnica4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPolasek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolasek66.7%2 of 3
AwaySkotnica42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polasek3Skotnica7n = 10Skotnica took 7 of 10
S2Polasek5Skotnica5n = 10split evenly
S3Polasek5Skotnica5n = 10split evenly
S4Polasek5Skotnica3n = 8Polasek took 5 of 8
S5Polasek3Skotnica1n = 4Polasek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolasekSkotnicaP − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.040.6+0.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolasekSkotnicaBasisWin rate · lifetime445 / 873 vs 122 / 22051%55.5%445 / 873 vs 122 / 220Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolasekPolasek 1.75/Skotnica 1.95
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Polasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skotnica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 29 · 13:00R. Polasek—6830M. Skotnica—1111113
WJun 29 · 11:00R. Polasek—9111111113M. Skotnica—11513352
WMay 7 · 15:00R. Polasek—111411113M. Skotnica—916881
WApr 28 · 16:00R. Polasek—811517113M. Skotnica—116111592
LMar 31 · 16:30R. Polasek—7390M. Skotnica—1111113
WMar 25 · 18:00R. Polasek—111110113M. Skotnica—981271
LMar 25 · 16:00R. Polasek—138119132M. Skotnica—1111911153
WMar 20 · 12:00R. Polasek—71111113M. Skotnica—118691
WMar 16 · 13:00R. Polasek—911119113M. Skotnica—11391142
LMar 6 · 12:00R. Polasek—6511121M. Skotnica—11119143
R. Polasek10
WSep 9 · 14:30M. Grundel2.0854111122R. Polasek1.59111173113LSep 9 · 09:30O. Paril1.80111110113R. Polasek1.90891281WSep 9 · 08:00M. Vavrecka2.0011812101R. Polasek1.73131110123LSep 9 · 07:00O. Paril1.80711112113R. Polasek1.9111781192WSep 9 · 06:30R. Polasek1.8311117123R. Revay1.838711101WSep 8 · 09:29P. Wawrosz1.73711661R. Polasek2.0011411113LSep 8 · 08:00R. Polasek1.8312881192P. Wawrosz1.831011116113WSep 8 · 07:30M. Navedla2.20101161162R. Polasek1.61126119113WSep 8 · 06:00R. Polasek1.57111175113J. Pilch2.2576111132LSep 6 · 21:00R. Polasek1.73111312882M. Vavrecka2.006151011113
M. Skotnica10
LSep 9 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.73431171M. Grundel2.0011113113WSep 9 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.618111110113L. Prikasky2.2011561252LSep 4 · 17:31M. Skotnica1.67912118102L. Prikasky2.101110711123WSep 4 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.671111143M. Navedla2.1067120WSep 4 · 15:30L. Prikasky2.1041030M. Skotnica1.671112113WSep 4 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.83111182113D. Tomica1.8363111142WSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191WSep 3 · 16:00M. Grundel2.1012871192M. Skotnica1.671011119113WSep 3 · 15:00L. Velebil1.838101191M. Skotnica1.8311129113WSep 3 · 14:30M. Skotnica1.40811911113R. Urbaniec2.7511411862
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