TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13099114
Played Sep 9Finished
Martin Skotnica
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411311113711––
Matej Grundel
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:34 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMartin Skotnica to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Skotnica above · Matej Grundel below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 61 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Martin Skotnica at 54.1%
61 points played in total.
H2H Martin Skotnica 20–11 Matej Grundel Matej Grundel has won 11 of their 31 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 13:34What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Skotnica
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-11 in 31
Skotnica
Wrong
gap of 9 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotnica 1866 vs Grundel 1850
Skotnica
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotnica 80% vs Grundel 40%
Skotnica
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotnica 90% vs Grundel 60%
Skotnica
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotnica +1 · Grundel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skotnica)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skotnica form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotnica 1.73 / Grundel 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skotnica)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13099114
Skotnica1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 46 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it75% 36 of 48
Grundel2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 31 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back28% 9 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkotnica6wins
AwayGrundel4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSkotnica leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotnica80%4 of 5
AwayGrundel60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotnica5Grundel5n = 10split evenly
S2Skotnica6Grundel4n = 10Skotnica took 6 of 10
S3Skotnica6Grundel4n = 10Skotnica took 6 of 10
S4Skotnica4Grundel4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkotnicaGrundelS − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.137.9+0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicaGrundelBasisWin rate · lifetime122 / 220 vs 163 / 31055.5%52.6%122 / 220 vs 163 / 310Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicaSkotnica 1.73/Grundel 2.00
Miss
What we said
54.1%
Skotnica · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Grundel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica—12114113M. Grundel—1091191
WSep 3 · 16:00M. Skotnica—1011119113M. Grundel—12871192
WAug 13 · 17:30M. Skotnica—1111113M. Grundel—9790
WAug 13 · 14:00M. Skotnica—11713113M. Grundel—7111121
LAug 5 · 15:00M. Skotnica—10111091M. Grundel—12612113
LJul 30 · 14:00M. Skotnica—811971M. Grundel—11511113
LJul 8 · 17:30M. Skotnica—7660M. Grundel—1111113
LJul 8 · 16:30M. Skotnica—13211882M. Grundel—1111911113
WJun 29 · 17:30M. Skotnica—61111113M. Grundel—119991
WJun 29 · 14:30M. Skotnica—11811113M. Grundel—611891
M. Skotnica10
WSep 9 · 15:30R. Polasek1.75711781M. Skotnica1.9511811113WSep 9 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.618111110113L. Prikasky2.2011561252LSep 4 · 17:31M. Skotnica1.67912118102L. Prikasky2.101110711123WSep 4 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.671111143M. Navedla2.1067120WSep 4 · 15:30L. Prikasky2.1041030M. Skotnica1.671112113WSep 4 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.83111182113D. Tomica1.8363111142WSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191WSep 3 · 16:00M. Grundel2.1012871192M. Skotnica1.671011119113WSep 3 · 15:00L. Velebil1.838101191M. Skotnica1.8311129113WSep 3 · 14:30M. Skotnica1.40811911113R. Urbaniec2.7511411862
M. Grundel10
WSep 9 · 15:00L. Prikasky1.83541381M. Grundel1.83111111113LSep 9 · 14:30M. Grundel2.0854111122R. Polasek1.59111173113LSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191LSep 3 · 16:00M. Grundel2.1012871192M. Skotnica1.671011119113WSep 3 · 15:30R. Urbaniec3.253660M. Grundel1.331111113WSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WAug 27 · 17:28M. Grundel1.831111109113L. Prikasky1.8382121192LAug 27 · 16:00L. Prikasky1.83119811113M. Grundel1.8361111882WAug 27 · 15:00D. Tomica2.257450M. Grundel1.571111113WAug 27 · 14:30M. Grundel2.001111113L. Velebil1.737750
Upcoming Matches
M. Skotnica
Nothing scheduled
M. Grundel1 of 3 neutral
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