TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115072
Played Sep 11Finished
Ondrej Paril
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811811119511––
Pavel Wawrosz
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Paril to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Paril above · Pavel Wawrosz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 74 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Ondrej Paril at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Paril 20–22 Pavel Wawrosz Ondrej Paril has won 20 of their 42 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Paril beat Wawrosz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:06What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Wawrosz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-22 in 42
Wawrosz
Correct
gap of 2 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paril 1886 vs Wawrosz 1819
Paril
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paril 60% vs Wawrosz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paril 70% vs Wawrosz 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Paril +1 · Wawrosz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Paril)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParil 1.85 / Wawrosz 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Paril)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115072
Paril1.85
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Wawrosz1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParil5wins
AwayWawrosz5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParil60%3 of 5
AwayWawrosz60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paril5Wawrosz5n = 10split evenly
S2Paril5Wawrosz5n = 10split evenly
S3Paril5Wawrosz5n = 10split evenly
S4Paril4Wawrosz4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricParilWawroszP − WBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.636.1+1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParilWawroszBasisWin rate · lifetime507 / 974 vs 210 / 41252.1%51%507 / 974 vs 210 / 412Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParilParil 1.85/Wawrosz 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Paril · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Wawrosz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 14:00O. Paril—11147113P. Wawrosz—0121181
LAug 12 · 18:30O. Paril—691191P. Wawrosz—11117113
WAug 12 · 14:00O. Paril—81111113P. Wawrosz—116171
WAug 9 · 10:00O. Paril—211511113P. Wawrosz—11611662
LAug 8 · 20:30O. Paril—1379111P. Wawrosz—111111133
WAug 8 · 15:00O. Paril—1111113P. Wawrosz—9670
LJul 31 · 08:30O. Paril—1461371P. Wawrosz—121115113
LJul 29 · 06:30O. Paril—91111372P. Wawrosz—117611113
LJul 25 · 10:00O. Paril—8490P. Wawrosz—1111113
WJul 23 · 09:30O. Paril—11911113P. Wawrosz—711651
O. Paril10
WSep 11 · 12:00O. Paril1.731111113R. Polasek2.005590LSep 11 · 11:30R. Revay1.911113109113O. Paril1.80311121162WSep 11 · 10:00O. Paril1.804101111113P. Wawrosz1.9111128572LSep 10 · 13:30O. Paril1.738470R. Polasek2.001111113WSep 10 · 12:30O. Paril1.73111110113J. Pilch2.00251261WSep 10 · 11:00O. Paril1.44811193123M. Navedla2.631141711102LSep 10 · 10:00R. Polasek1.8311118113O. Paril1.83981191WSep 9 · 09:30O. Paril1.80111110113R. Polasek1.90891281WSep 9 · 08:30O. Paril1.73116128123R. Revay2.007111011102WSep 9 · 07:00O. Paril1.80711112113R. Polasek1.9111781192
P. Wawrosz10
WSep 11 · 12:30P. Wawrosz1.8361211113R. Revay1.831110681WSep 11 · 11:00P. Wawrosz2.0011127113R. Polasek1.739101191LSep 11 · 10:00O. Paril1.804101111113P. Wawrosz1.9111128572LSep 8 · 09:29P. Wawrosz1.73711661R. Polasek2.0011411113WSep 8 · 08:00R. Polasek1.8312881192P. Wawrosz1.831011116113WSep 8 · 07:00J. Pilch1.73551171P. Wawrosz2.0011116113WSep 8 · 06:30P. Wawrosz1.53111111113M. Navedla2.38813481WSep 7 · 13:07J. Pilch1.72117271P. Wawrosz2.0041111113LSep 7 · 12:00T. Dousek1.6171111113P. Wawrosz2.20117881LSep 7 · 11:00J. Pilch1.8371113113P. Wawrosz1.831171161
Upcoming Matches
O. Paril
Nothing scheduled
P. Wawrosz
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